← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Roger Williams University3.95+7.30vs Predicted
-
2Fordham University4.26+4.94vs Predicted
-
3Bowdoin College3.18+8.73vs Predicted
-
4College of Charleston3.62+5.42vs Predicted
-
5Boston College3.92+3.15vs Predicted
-
6Dartmouth College3.49+4.09vs Predicted
-
7Connecticut College3.23+4.16vs Predicted
-
8Yale University4.08-0.53vs Predicted
-
9University of Pennsylvania3.16+2.55vs Predicted
-
10Brown University3.64-0.27vs Predicted
-
11Tufts University3.73-1.84vs Predicted
-
12Old Dominion University3.82-2.94vs Predicted
-
13Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62-3.62vs Predicted
-
14U. S. Naval Academy3.74-5.33vs Predicted
-
15University of Vermont3.63-5.59vs Predicted
-
16Harvard University3.49-5.87vs Predicted
-
17Stanford University3.80-8.14vs Predicted
-
18SUNY Maritime College3.05-6.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.3Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
-
6.94Fordham University4.260.1%1st Place
-
11.73Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
-
9.42College of Charleston3.620.1%1st Place
-
8.15Boston College3.920.1%1st Place
-
10.09Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
-
11.16Connecticut College3.230.0%1st Place
-
7.47Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
-
11.55University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
-
9.73Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
-
9.16Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
-
9.06Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
-
9.38Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.1%1st Place
-
8.67U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
-
9.41University of Vermont3.630.1%1st Place
-
10.13Harvard University3.490.0%1st Place
-
8.86Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
-
11.8SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Macdonald | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.6% |
| Olin Paine | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Jack McGuire | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 13.0% |
| Nick Johnstone | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.5% |
| William Bailey | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 1.9% |
| Scott Houck | 5.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.8% |
| Bryce Kopp | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.7% |
| Ian Barrows | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 11.6% |
| Lucas Adams | 6.4% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% |
| Esteban Forrer | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 3.2% |
| Alexander Stewart | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% |
| Mary Hall | 6.5% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 2.8% |
| Michael Zonnenberg | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 3.8% |
| Brian Drumm | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% |
| Hans Henken | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 2.3% |
| Nick Valente | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 14.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.