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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University4.26+6.05vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.08+5.71vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62+6.75vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College3.18+7.24vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College3.49+4.99vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University3.82+2.68vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University3.95+1.06vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont3.63+1.39vs Predicted
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9Boston College3.92-0.82vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania3.16+1.78vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy3.74-1.82vs Predicted
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12Tufts University3.73-2.55vs Predicted
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13Stanford University3.80-4.40vs Predicted
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14College of Charleston3.62-4.81vs Predicted
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15Harvard University3.49-4.99vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College3.23-4.74vs Predicted
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17Brown University3.64-7.40vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College3.05-6.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.05Fordham University4.260.1%1st Place
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7.71Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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9.75Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.0%1st Place
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11.24Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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9.99Dartmouth College3.490.0%1st Place
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8.68Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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8.06Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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9.39University of Vermont3.630.1%1st Place
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8.18Boston College3.920.1%1st Place
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11.78University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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9.18U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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9.45Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
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8.6Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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9.19College of Charleston3.620.1%1st Place
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10.01Harvard University3.490.0%1st Place
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11.26Connecticut College3.230.0%1st Place
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9.6Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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11.86SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olin Paine | 9.4% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| Ian Barrows | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Alexander Stewart | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.1% |
| Jack McGuire | 3.4% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 10.5% |
| Scott Houck | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% |
| Esteban Forrer | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% |
| William Macdonald | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% |
| Michael Zonnenberg | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.9% |
| William Bailey | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.7% |
| Jack Swikart | 4.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 14.7% |
| Mary Hall | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% |
| Hans Henken | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.2% |
| Nick Johnstone | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 3.8% |
| Brian Drumm | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% |
| Bryce Kopp | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 10.7% |
| Lucas Adams | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% |
| Nick Valente | 3.2% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 14.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.