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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.49+9.27vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.49+8.38vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College3.05+9.20vs Predicted
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4Fordham University4.26+2.76vs Predicted
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5Yale University4.08+2.51vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston3.62+3.50vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University3.95+1.06vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.80+0.63vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.74-0.02vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62-0.22vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University3.82-2.23vs Predicted
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12Brown University3.64-2.15vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College3.18-1.71vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania3.16-2.83vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College3.23-3.88vs Predicted
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16Boston College3.92-7.68vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont3.63-7.42vs Predicted
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18Tufts University3.73-9.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.27Dartmouth College3.490.0%1st Place
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10.38Harvard University3.490.0%1st Place
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12.2SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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6.76Fordham University4.260.1%1st Place
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7.51Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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9.5College of Charleston3.620.1%1st Place
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8.06Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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8.63Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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8.98U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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9.78Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.1%1st Place
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8.77Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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9.85Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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11.29Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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11.17University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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11.12Connecticut College3.230.0%1st Place
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8.32Boston College3.920.1%1st Place
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9.58University of Vermont3.630.1%1st Place
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8.81Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Houck | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% |
| Brian Drumm | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% |
| Nick Valente | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 13.5% | 15.0% |
| Olin Paine | 10.4% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Ian Barrows | 7.9% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| Nick Johnstone | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% |
| William Macdonald | 7.4% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.8% |
| Hans Henken | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% |
| Mary Hall | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.7% |
| Alexander Stewart | 6.1% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% |
| Esteban Forrer | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.9% |
| Lucas Adams | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% |
| Jack McGuire | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 11.6% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 11.0% |
| Bryce Kopp | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 10.9% |
| William Bailey | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.5% |
| Michael Zonnenberg | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.0% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.