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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College3.18+10.56vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62+7.76vs Predicted
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3Boston College3.92+5.41vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.64+5.32vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University3.95+3.05vs Predicted
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6Fordham University4.26+0.76vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College3.05+4.97vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.49+2.00vs Predicted
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9Yale University4.08-1.53vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University3.82-1.11vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College3.49-0.75vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont3.63-2.08vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College3.23-1.94vs Predicted
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14College of Charleston3.62-4.74vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy3.74-6.04vs Predicted
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16University of Pennsylvania3.16-4.40vs Predicted
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17Stanford University3.80-8.08vs Predicted
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18Tufts University3.73-9.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.56Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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9.76Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.0%1st Place
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8.41Boston College3.920.1%1st Place
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9.32Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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8.05Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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6.76Fordham University4.260.1%1st Place
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11.97SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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10.0Harvard University3.490.0%1st Place
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7.47Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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8.89Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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10.25Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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9.92University of Vermont3.630.0%1st Place
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11.06Connecticut College3.230.0%1st Place
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9.26College of Charleston3.620.1%1st Place
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8.96U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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11.6University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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8.92Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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8.83Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack McGuire | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 13.3% |
| Alexander Stewart | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.0% |
| William Bailey | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Lucas Adams | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 4.4% |
| William Macdonald | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.0% |
| Olin Paine | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% |
| Nick Valente | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 14.1% |
| Brian Drumm | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% |
| Ian Barrows | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Esteban Forrer | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Scott Houck | 5.0% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 5.8% |
| Michael Zonnenberg | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% |
| Bryce Kopp | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 10.0% |
| Nick Johnstone | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.2% |
| Mary Hall | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.4% |
| Jack Swikart | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 15.3% |
| Hans Henken | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.3% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.