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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.08+6.63vs Predicted
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2Fordham University4.26+4.85vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.64+6.62vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62+5.26vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.80+3.57vs Predicted
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6Boston College3.92+2.16vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University3.95+0.93vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.49+1.81vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College3.18+2.32vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University3.82-1.28vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College2.59+2.66vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont3.63-2.32vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania3.16-1.85vs Predicted
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14Tufts University3.73-5.39vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy3.74-6.19vs Predicted
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16College of Charleston3.62-6.54vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College3.49-6.88vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College3.05-6.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.63Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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6.85Fordham University4.260.1%1st Place
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9.62Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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9.26Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.1%1st Place
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8.57Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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8.16Boston College3.920.1%1st Place
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7.93Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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9.81Harvard University3.490.0%1st Place
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11.32Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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8.72Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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13.66Connecticut College2.590.0%1st Place
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9.68University of Vermont3.630.1%1st Place
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11.15University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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8.61Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
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8.81U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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9.46College of Charleston3.620.0%1st Place
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10.12Dartmouth College3.490.0%1st Place
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11.63SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Barrows | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
| Olin Paine | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Lucas Adams | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.3% |
| Alexander Stewart | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.3% |
| Hans Henken | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% |
| William Bailey | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% |
| William Macdonald | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% |
| Brian Drumm | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.0% |
| Jack McGuire | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.8% |
| Ellis Tonissi | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 12.0% | 30.9% |
| Michael Zonnenberg | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 3.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 10.2% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 6.1% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 2.5% |
| Mary Hall | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.7% |
| Nick Johnstone | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 3.7% |
| Scott Houck | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 5.3% |
| Nick Valente | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 12.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.