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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College3.92+7.29vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston3.62+7.67vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.64+6.56vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.80+4.47vs Predicted
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5Fordham University4.26+1.68vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.95+1.95vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62+2.32vs Predicted
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8Tufts University3.73+0.81vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College3.18+2.26vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University3.82-1.24vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.49-0.87vs Predicted
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12Yale University4.08-4.24vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College3.49-3.21vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College3.05-2.53vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy3.74-6.21vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College2.59-2.34vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont3.63-7.49vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania3.16-6.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.29Boston College3.920.1%1st Place
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9.67College of Charleston3.620.0%1st Place
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9.56Brown University3.640.0%1st Place
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8.47Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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6.68Fordham University4.260.1%1st Place
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7.95Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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9.32Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.1%1st Place
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8.81Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
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11.26Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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8.76Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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10.13Harvard University3.490.1%1st Place
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7.76Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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9.79Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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11.47SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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8.79U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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13.66Connecticut College2.590.0%1st Place
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9.51University of Vermont3.630.1%1st Place
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11.12University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Bailey | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.0% |
| Nick Johnstone | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 3.5% |
| Lucas Adams | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 2.9% |
| Hans Henken | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.5% |
| Olin Paine | 10.7% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| William Macdonald | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.6% |
| Alexander Stewart | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.6% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% |
| Jack McGuire | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 7.3% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 2.1% |
| Brian Drumm | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 5.7% |
| Ian Barrows | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Scott Houck | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% |
| Nick Valente | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 12.1% |
| Mary Hall | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.1% |
| Ellis Tonissi | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 12.4% | 29.4% |
| Michael Zonnenberg | 5.3% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 3.8% |
| Jack Swikart | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.