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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.81+8.32vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.63+1.42vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.61+3.52vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University1.82+5.25vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.73+0.90vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.76-0.07vs Predicted
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7Villanova University1.15+5.33vs Predicted
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8Washington College1.81+1.18vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+3.49vs Predicted
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10Drexel University1.06+2.31vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.33-3.59vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania0.87+1.16vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College1.23-1.04vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.43-7.16vs Predicted
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15University of Buffalo0.87-2.03vs Predicted
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16Columbia University0.47-1.59vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook-1.11+1.42vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.18-10.07vs Predicted
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19Queen's University0.68-5.32vs Predicted
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20SUNY Maritime College-0.19-3.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.32U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.810.0%1st Place
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3.42U. S. Naval Academy3.630.2%1st Place
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6.52Fordham University2.610.1%1st Place
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9.25Christopher Newport University1.820.0%1st Place
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5.9Old Dominion University2.730.1%1st Place
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5.93St. Mary's College of Maryland2.760.1%1st Place
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12.33Villanova University1.150.0%1st Place
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9.18Washington College1.810.0%1st Place
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12.49U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.990.0%1st Place
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12.31Drexel University1.060.0%1st Place
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7.41George Washington University2.330.1%1st Place
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13.16University of Pennsylvania0.870.0%1st Place
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11.96SUNY Maritime College1.230.0%1st Place
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6.84Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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12.97University of Buffalo0.870.0%1st Place
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14.41Columbia University0.470.0%1st Place
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18.42SUNY Stony Brook-1.110.0%1st Place
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7.93Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.180.0%1st Place
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13.68Queen's University0.680.0%1st Place
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16.57SUNY Maritime College-0.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Storino | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Gary Prieto | 24.9% | 20.1% | 15.2% | 13.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 9.4% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anders Hudson | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Lee Dumaliang | 10.0% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Burgess | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Alldian | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 1.1% |
| Eleanor Conroy | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Brendan Wright | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 1.6% |
| Jakub Tyczynski | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 1.3% |
| Riley Engelberger | 6.9% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Ryder | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 2.7% |
| James Keegan | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 1.1% |
| Thomas Balk | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Green | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 2.8% |
| Catherine Duggan | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 14.4% | 6.2% |
| Tomasz Stefankowski | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 6.9% | 15.1% | 59.4% |
| Noah Barrengos Barrengos | 4.5% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Taylor Stubbins | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 3.7% |
| Micheal Bell-Wright | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 9.5% | 13.7% | 25.7% | 19.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.