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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College1.81+7.98vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.81+7.12vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University2.73+2.89vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.76+1.70vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University1.82+3.99vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.63-2.57vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.18+0.94vs Predicted
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8Fordham University2.61-1.88vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.43-2.26vs Predicted
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10Drexel University1.06+1.96vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.33-3.72vs Predicted
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12Queen's University0.68+1.55vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania0.87-0.08vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99-1.77vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College1.23-3.77vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College-0.19+0.07vs Predicted
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17University of Buffalo0.87-4.49vs Predicted
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18Columbia University0.47-3.86vs Predicted
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19Villanova University-0.57-1.98vs Predicted
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20SUNY Stony Brook-1.11-1.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.98Washington College1.810.0%1st Place
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9.12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.810.1%1st Place
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5.89Old Dominion University2.730.1%1st Place
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5.7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.760.1%1st Place
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8.99Christopher Newport University1.820.0%1st Place
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3.43U. S. Naval Academy3.630.2%1st Place
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7.94Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.180.1%1st Place
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6.12Fordham University2.610.1%1st Place
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6.74Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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11.96Drexel University1.060.0%1st Place
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7.28George Washington University2.330.1%1st Place
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13.55Queen's University0.680.0%1st Place
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12.92University of Pennsylvania0.870.0%1st Place
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12.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.990.0%1st Place
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11.23SUNY Maritime College1.230.0%1st Place
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16.07SUNY Maritime College-0.190.0%1st Place
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12.51University of Buffalo0.870.0%1st Place
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14.14Columbia University0.470.0%1st Place
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17.02Villanova University-0.570.0%1st Place
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18.19SUNY Stony Brook-1.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eleanor Conroy | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Vincent Storino | 5.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 5.0% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Lee Dumaliang | 11.4% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Burgess | 11.2% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Anders Hudson | 2.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gary Prieto | 24.1% | 20.3% | 15.8% | 13.2% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barrengos Barrengos | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 8.1% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Balk | 6.9% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jakub Tyczynski | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Riley Engelberger | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Taylor Stubbins | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 6.1% | 2.7% |
| Maxwell Ryder | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 4.6% | 1.6% |
| Brendan Wright | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 0.6% |
| James Keegan | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Micheal Bell-Wright | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 15.9% | 19.8% | 15.6% |
| Andrew Green | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 1.6% |
| Catherine Duggan | 1.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 10.0% | 4.2% |
| Alex Heid | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 14.3% | 26.0% | 23.6% |
| Tomasz Stefankowski | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 8.6% | 21.2% | 49.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.