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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy3.17+3.20vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.73+3.54vs Predicted
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3George Washington University2.33+4.07vs Predicted
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4Villanova University1.15+7.67vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University1.82+3.84vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.72+3.40vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.43-0.24vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+4.14vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College1.23+2.28vs Predicted
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10Washington College1.63-0.30vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.18-3.40vs Predicted
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12University of Buffalo0.87+0.88vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland2.76-7.29vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania0.87-1.30vs Predicted
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15Drexel University1.06-3.08vs Predicted
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16Columbia University0.05-0.42vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College-0.19-0.79vs Predicted
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18SUNY Stony Brook-1.11+0.31vs Predicted
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19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.81-10.10vs Predicted
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20Queen's University0.68-6.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.2U. S. Naval Academy3.170.2%1st Place
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5.54Old Dominion University2.730.1%1st Place
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7.07George Washington University2.330.1%1st Place
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11.67Villanova University1.150.0%1st Place
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8.84Christopher Newport University1.820.0%1st Place
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9.4Fordham University1.720.0%1st Place
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6.76Cornell University2.430.1%1st Place
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12.14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.990.0%1st Place
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11.28SUNY Maritime College1.230.0%1st Place
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9.7Washington College1.630.0%1st Place
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7.6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.180.1%1st Place
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12.88University of Buffalo0.870.0%1st Place
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5.71St. Mary's College of Maryland2.760.1%1st Place
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12.7University of Pennsylvania0.870.0%1st Place
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11.92Drexel University1.060.0%1st Place
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15.58Columbia University0.050.0%1st Place
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16.21SUNY Maritime College-0.190.0%1st Place
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18.31SUNY Stony Brook-1.110.0%1st Place
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8.9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.810.0%1st Place
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13.59Queen's University0.680.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Madigan | 20.1% | 16.5% | 14.8% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lee Dumaliang | 11.7% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Riley Engelberger | 8.0% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| David Alldian | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 0.8% |
| Anders Hudson | 4.4% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Johanna Monro | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Balk | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Wright | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 1.7% |
| James Keegan | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Alexander Smith | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Noah Barrengos Barrengos | 7.8% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Green | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 2.0% |
| Kyle Burgess | 12.0% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Ryder | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 2.0% |
| Jakub Tyczynski | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 1.0% |
| Michael Fagundo | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 14.8% | 20.7% | 12.6% |
| Micheal Bell-Wright | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 15.9% | 22.4% | 17.4% |
| Tomasz Stefankowski | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 8.6% | 14.7% | 58.1% |
| Vincent Storino | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Taylor Stubbins | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 3.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.