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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.92+7.21vs Predicted
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2Harvard University4.17+5.08vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.53+6.95vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University4.33+2.51vs Predicted
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5Boston College4.43+1.01vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy4.09+1.55vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College3.00+5.63vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+0.20vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara3.26+1.98vs Predicted
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10Columbia University1.99+6.18vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida3.14+0.73vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin2.72+1.70vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.63-3.18vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.50+0.34vs Predicted
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15Cornell University2.48-0.66vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University2.92-3.43vs Predicted
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17Roger Williams University3.31-6.28vs Predicted
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18Dartmouth College3.18-6.43vs Predicted
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19Brown University4.05-11.50vs Predicted
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20U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46-9.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.21St. Mary's College of Maryland3.920.1%1st Place
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7.08Harvard University4.170.1%1st Place
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9.95U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.530.1%1st Place
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6.51Georgetown University4.330.1%1st Place
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6.01Boston College4.430.1%1st Place
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7.55U. S. Naval Academy4.090.1%1st Place
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12.63SUNY Maritime College3.000.0%1st Place
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8.2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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10.98University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.0%1st Place
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16.18Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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11.73University of South Florida3.140.0%1st Place
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13.7University of Wisconsin2.720.0%1st Place
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9.82Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.630.0%1st Place
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14.34Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
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14.34Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
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12.57Old Dominion University2.920.0%1st Place
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10.72Roger Williams University3.310.0%1st Place
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11.57Dartmouth College3.180.0%1st Place
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7.5Brown University4.050.1%1st Place
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10.41U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Greenslade | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| John Stokes | 9.9% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jonathan Duffett | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Scott Furnary | 10.3% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Anne Haeger | 11.9% | 11.7% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clark Hayes | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Ted Green | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% |
| Austen Anderson | 5.9% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Ryan Sullivan | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.0% |
| John Croll | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 15.5% | 31.2% |
| David Harrison | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 3.6% |
| Brendan Boylan | 2.0% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 10.1% |
| Eamon Glackin | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 15.0% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 14.4% | 16.0% |
| Zach Runci | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 5.7% |
| Josh Saltmarsh | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.1% |
| John Renehan | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 3.3% |
| Mark Towill | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Liberty | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.