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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.18+8.67vs Predicted
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2Boston College4.43+3.14vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University4.01+3.75vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+4.92vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.53+3.35vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University4.33-0.19vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University3.31+2.48vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College3.00+2.39vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy4.09-2.38vs Predicted
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10Brown University4.05-3.50vs Predicted
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11Columbia University1.99+2.90vs Predicted
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12University of South Florida3.14-1.90vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87-5.59vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara3.26-4.24vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.50-2.65vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin3.36-6.67vs Predicted
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17Cornell University2.48-4.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.67Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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5.14Boston College4.430.1%1st Place
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6.75Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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8.92U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
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8.35U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.530.1%1st Place
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5.81Georgetown University4.330.1%1st Place
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9.48Roger Williams University3.310.1%1st Place
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10.39SUNY Maritime College3.000.0%1st Place
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6.62U. S. Naval Academy4.090.1%1st Place
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6.5Brown University4.050.1%1st Place
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13.9Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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10.1University of South Florida3.140.0%1st Place
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7.41Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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9.76University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.0%1st Place
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12.35Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
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9.33University of Wisconsin3.360.0%1st Place
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12.51Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Renehan | 5.2% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 2.8% |
| Anne Haeger | 14.1% | 13.1% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Paiva | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Daniel Liberty | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.3% |
| Jonathan Duffett | 5.3% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Scott Furnary | 11.5% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Josh Saltmarsh | 5.4% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 2.5% |
| Ted Green | 4.1% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 6.8% |
| Clark Hayes | 7.9% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Mark Towill | 8.8% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| John Croll | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 10.3% | 14.3% | 38.4% |
| David Harrison | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 4.8% |
| Austen Anderson | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Ryan Sullivan | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 2.9% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 11.9% | 16.6% | 16.8% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 2.4% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 13.5% | 16.5% | 17.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.