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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.18+8.68vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+5.18vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University4.33+2.59vs Predicted
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4Boston College4.43+1.36vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.53+3.40vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.48+6.59vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46+1.86vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University4.01-1.31vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara3.26+0.76vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy4.09-3.62vs Predicted
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11Fordham University2.50+1.44vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College3.00-1.45vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University3.31-3.48vs Predicted
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14Brown University4.05-7.30vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida3.14-4.90vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin3.36-6.74vs Predicted
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17Columbia University1.99-3.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.68Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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7.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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5.59Georgetown University4.330.1%1st Place
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5.36Boston College4.430.1%1st Place
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8.4U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.530.0%1st Place
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12.59Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
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8.86U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
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6.69Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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9.76University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.0%1st Place
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6.38U. S. Naval Academy4.090.1%1st Place
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12.44Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
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10.55SUNY Maritime College3.000.0%1st Place
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9.52Roger Williams University3.310.0%1st Place
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6.7Brown University4.050.1%1st Place
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10.1University of South Florida3.140.0%1st Place
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9.26University of Wisconsin3.360.0%1st Place
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13.94Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Renehan | 5.0% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 2.8% |
| Austen Anderson | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Scott Furnary | 11.7% | 12.8% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Anne Haeger | 13.5% | 13.0% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Duffett | 4.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 1.3% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 12.3% | 16.3% | 17.5% |
| Daniel Liberty | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 1.7% |
| Dillon Paiva | 9.9% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Sullivan | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 3.4% |
| Clark Hayes | 8.8% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 11.5% | 15.8% | 18.5% |
| Ted Green | 3.2% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 6.1% |
| Josh Saltmarsh | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 3.7% |
| Mark Towill | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| David Harrison | 3.3% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 4.6% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 4.0% | 2.8% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 2.2% |
| John Croll | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 15.2% | 37.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.