Race 4B

74th-erwin-schell

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Pearson Potts 8.2% 8.4% 8.3% 7.6% 8.1% 7.3% 7.0% 7.6% 7.2% 5.1% 5.4% 4.9% 4.4% 5.2% 3.1% 1.4% 0.8% 0.0%
Ian Barrows 9.0% 8.6% 10.4% 10.6% 8.9% 8.1% 7.1% 6.8% 7.1% 7.3% 4.5% 3.9% 3.0% 1.9% 1.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Connor Corgard 7.6% 6.7% 6.4% 7.0% 7.5% 6.5% 8.4% 7.4% 6.5% 6.5% 5.9% 6.1% 5.3% 5.9% 3.6% 1.7% 0.9% 0.1%
Nikole Barnes 7.3% 7.8% 8.8% 7.4% 4.5% 7.8% 6.5% 6.7% 6.2% 6.6% 7.1% 4.9% 5.3% 4.4% 4.5% 2.3% 1.6% 0.3%
William Bailey 8.7% 11.2% 8.7% 8.5% 7.2% 6.9% 7.9% 6.6% 4.9% 7.2% 3.9% 5.1% 5.9% 2.8% 2.3% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1%
Dan Nickerson 5.7% 4.8% 6.6% 5.2% 5.4% 6.9% 6.6% 6.8% 7.4% 5.7% 6.4% 6.5% 6.0% 6.2% 6.0% 4.7% 2.2% 0.9%
Matthew Coughlin 3.6% 3.8% 3.7% 4.3% 4.2% 5.6% 3.4% 4.1% 4.4% 5.4% 6.7% 7.5% 7.4% 9.4% 8.2% 9.9% 6.6% 1.8%
Michael Saldi 3.6% 3.1% 4.6% 4.8% 3.8% 4.1% 4.8% 4.5% 6.3% 3.9% 5.7% 7.1% 7.6% 9.1% 8.7% 10.5% 6.1% 1.7%
Nate Jermain 4.9% 6.0% 6.0% 5.2% 6.4% 6.3% 6.3% 5.7% 7.0% 7.0% 7.1% 7.0% 7.2% 6.3% 5.1% 4.3% 1.9% 0.3%
David Larson 6.0% 4.2% 3.9% 4.3% 5.1% 4.1% 5.5% 7.1% 6.4% 5.9% 7.8% 6.5% 7.6% 7.2% 8.0% 5.5% 3.8% 1.1%
Charles Welsh 3.4% 2.8% 3.2% 3.4% 4.2% 2.9% 3.0% 4.8% 6.0% 4.4% 5.4% 7.5% 7.1% 7.5% 9.9% 12.4% 8.9% 3.2%
Hugh MacGillivray 4.2% 4.7% 4.4% 5.0% 4.8% 5.5% 4.4% 5.1% 5.8% 6.1% 7.3% 5.8% 7.6% 7.8% 7.3% 7.3% 5.5% 1.4%
Deirdre Lambert 8.8% 8.9% 8.6% 7.3% 9.4% 6.4% 6.5% 7.7% 6.2% 6.9% 5.5% 5.1% 4.1% 3.9% 2.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.0%
Jackson Hamilton 2.7% 2.4% 3.3% 2.8% 3.4% 4.6% 3.3% 4.8% 4.9% 4.3% 5.2% 5.2% 6.1% 7.7% 10.2% 12.7% 11.0% 5.4%
Andrew Mollerus 8.5% 8.0% 6.2% 9.1% 7.8% 7.9% 8.5% 6.2% 4.9% 6.8% 5.6% 6.8% 4.3% 3.3% 3.4% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1%
Jennifer Lee 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 1.2% 0.9% 1.1% 0.9% 1.1% 1.5% 1.7% 2.2% 2.5% 5.2% 7.8% 18.7% 52.3%
Renee Torrie 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 0.4% 1.6% 1.1% 2.1% 1.2% 1.3% 2.4% 1.9% 2.3% 3.3% 4.1% 5.5% 11.3% 27.8% 30.9%
Michael Croteau 6.3% 6.9% 5.3% 6.7% 7.2% 6.8% 7.8% 5.8% 6.6% 7.4% 7.1% 6.1% 5.6% 4.8% 4.6% 2.5% 2.1% 0.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.