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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College4.43+4.17vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy4.09+4.37vs Predicted
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3Brown University4.05+3.56vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida3.14+6.13vs Predicted
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5University of Wisconsin3.36+4.02vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University4.33-0.24vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+0.26vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.53+0.35vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara3.26+0.80vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College3.18-0.25vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University4.01-4.07vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College3.00-1.41vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.46-4.04vs Predicted
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14Fordham University2.50-1.50vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University3.31-5.60vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.48-3.46vs Predicted
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17Columbia University1.99-3.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.17Boston College4.430.1%1st Place
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6.37U. S. Naval Academy4.090.1%1st Place
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6.56Brown University4.050.1%1st Place
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10.13University of South Florida3.140.0%1st Place
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9.02University of Wisconsin3.360.0%1st Place
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5.76Georgetown University4.330.1%1st Place
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7.26Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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8.35U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.530.1%1st Place
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9.8University of California at Santa Barbara3.260.0%1st Place
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9.75Dartmouth College3.180.0%1st Place
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6.93Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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10.59SUNY Maritime College3.000.0%1st Place
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8.96U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.460.1%1st Place
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12.5Fordham University2.500.0%1st Place
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9.4Roger Williams University3.310.0%1st Place
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12.54Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
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13.92Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anne Haeger | 14.6% | 14.2% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clark Hayes | 9.6% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Mark Towill | 9.8% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| David Harrison | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 4.6% |
| George Kutschenreuter | 3.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 2.2% |
| Scott Furnary | 11.1% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Austen Anderson | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Jonathan Duffett | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| Ryan Sullivan | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 3.4% |
| John Renehan | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 5.4% | 4.1% |
| Dillon Paiva | 9.9% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Ted Green | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 6.8% |
| Daniel Liberty | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 2.4% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 15.5% | 17.9% |
| Josh Saltmarsh | 4.6% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 3.0% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 15.6% | 17.6% |
| John Croll | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 10.3% | 17.0% | 35.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.