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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+1.28vs Predicted
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2California State University Monterey Bay0.56+5.12vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+3.40vs Predicted
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4University of California at Davis0.83+2.52vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.79+1.80vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara1.72-1.77vs Predicted
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7California State University Channel Islands0.47+0.36vs Predicted
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8California State University Channel Islands0.47-0.64vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.38-2.17vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.18-2.39vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley0.31-3.78vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-0.01-3.84vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego0.39-6.12vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-1.18-3.07vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-0.62-6.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.28University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.4%1st Place
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7.12California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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6.4University of California at Santa Cruz0.860.1%1st Place
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6.52University of California at Davis0.830.0%1st Place
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6.8University of California at Berkeley0.790.0%1st Place
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4.23University of California at Santa Barbara1.720.1%1st Place
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7.36California State University Channel Islands0.470.1%1st Place
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7.36California State University Channel Islands0.470.1%1st Place
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7.83Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.380.0%1st Place
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8.61Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.180.0%1st Place
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8.22University of California at Berkeley0.310.0%1st Place
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9.16University of California at Berkeley-0.010.0%1st Place
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7.88University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
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11.93University of California at San Diego-1.180.0%1st Place
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10.66University of California at San Diego-0.620.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Henken | 41.9% | 25.2% | 13.4% | 10.2% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 4.9% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Alex Verdoia | 6.4% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Baldassare | 4.7% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Saul Rosen | 4.4% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Grant Rickon | 12.9% | 17.2% | 16.0% | 14.0% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maddy Brownsea | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Maddy Brownsea | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Kunz | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Geoffrey Brelsford | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Anderson | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Hogan | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| David Luu | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 17.0% | 47.2% | 0.0% |
| Grant Lin | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 12.8% | 21.6% | 20.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.