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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California State University Channel Islands0.47+6.53vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+4.26vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.79+3.67vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.72+0.17vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara2.72-3.69vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley0.31+1.28vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis0.83-1.71vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.18-0.54vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-0.01-1.85vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.38-3.98vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay0.56-5.59vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.18-1.98vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego0.39-7.19vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-0.62-5.37vs Predicted
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17California State University Channel Islands0.47-9.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.53California State University Channel Islands0.470.0%1st Place
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6.26University of California at Santa Cruz0.860.1%1st Place
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6.67University of California at Berkeley0.790.1%1st Place
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4.17University of California at Santa Barbara1.720.1%1st Place
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2.31University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.4%1st Place
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8.28University of California at Berkeley0.310.0%1st Place
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6.29University of California at Davis0.830.1%1st Place
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8.46Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.180.0%1st Place
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9.15University of California at Berkeley-0.010.0%1st Place
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8.02Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.380.0%1st Place
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7.41California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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12.02University of California at San Diego-1.180.0%1st Place
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7.81University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
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10.63University of California at San Diego-0.620.0%1st Place
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7.53California State University Channel Islands0.470.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddy Brownsea | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Alex Verdoia | 5.8% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Saul Rosen | 6.1% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Grant Rickon | 13.7% | 16.7% | 16.5% | 15.4% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Henken | 39.6% | 26.2% | 16.3% | 8.3% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Anderson | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 4.6% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Baldassare | 6.3% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Geoffrey Brelsford | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Hogan | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 13.5% | 10.7% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Kunz | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| David Luu | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 15.2% | 48.5% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Grant Lin | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 12.9% | 24.6% | 18.7% | 0.0% |
| Maddy Brownsea | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.