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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.72+2.85vs Predicted
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2California State University Channel Islands0.47+4.80vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+2.87vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley0.79+2.14vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara2.72-2.77vs Predicted
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7California State University Channel Islands0.47-0.20vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley-0.01+0.39vs Predicted
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9University of California at Davis0.83-3.28vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.31-2.64vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.96-1.29vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-0.62-2.96vs Predicted
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14California State University Monterey Bay0.56-7.19vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego0.39-7.78vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-1.18-4.89vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.12-4.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.85University of California at Santa Barbara1.720.2%1st Place
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6.8California State University Channel Islands0.470.0%1st Place
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5.87University of California at Santa Cruz0.860.1%1st Place
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6.14University of California at Berkeley0.790.1%1st Place
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2.23University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.4%1st Place
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6.8California State University Channel Islands0.470.0%1st Place
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8.39University of California at Berkeley-0.010.0%1st Place
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5.72University of California at Davis0.830.1%1st Place
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7.36University of California at Berkeley0.310.0%1st Place
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10.71Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.960.0%1st Place
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10.04University of California at San Diego-0.620.0%1st Place
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6.81California State University Monterey Bay0.560.1%1st Place
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7.22University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
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11.11University of California at San Diego-1.180.0%1st Place
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12.75Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.120.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Rickon | 16.1% | 18.9% | 18.1% | 13.1% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maddy Brownsea | 3.5% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alex Verdoia | 6.5% | 7.4% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Saul Rosen | 5.2% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Henken | 40.8% | 25.9% | 15.7% | 10.1% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maddy Brownsea | 3.5% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Hogan | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 5.7% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Baldassare | 6.9% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 13.2% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Anderson | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Keiran Hansen | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 19.0% | 22.9% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| Grant Lin | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 14.2% | 16.4% | 16.9% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 5.1% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| David Luu | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 17.4% | 24.8% | 18.1% | 0.0% |
| Tim Wetzel | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 17.1% | 58.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.