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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.72+2.80vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.72+0.12vs Predicted
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3California State University Channel Islands0.47+3.97vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+1.92vs Predicted
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5University of California at Davis0.83+1.09vs Predicted
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7California State University Channel Islands0.47-0.03vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.79-1.82vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley-0.01-0.88vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.96+0.61vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley0.31-4.58vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego0.39-5.77vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.18-2.71vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.12-2.20vs Predicted
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16California State University Monterey Bay0.56-9.36vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-0.62-7.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.8University of California at Santa Barbara1.720.2%1st Place
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2.12University of California at Santa Barbara2.720.4%1st Place
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6.97California State University Channel Islands0.470.0%1st Place
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5.92University of California at Santa Cruz0.860.1%1st Place
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6.09University of California at Davis0.830.1%1st Place
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6.97California State University Channel Islands0.470.0%1st Place
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6.18University of California at Berkeley0.790.1%1st Place
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8.12University of California at Berkeley-0.010.0%1st Place
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10.61Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.960.0%1st Place
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7.42University of California at Berkeley0.310.0%1st Place
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7.23University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
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11.29University of California at San Diego-1.180.0%1st Place
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12.8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.120.0%1st Place
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6.64California State University Monterey Bay0.560.1%1st Place
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9.81University of California at San Diego-0.620.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Rickon | 16.8% | 19.1% | 17.7% | 13.2% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sterling Henken | 42.8% | 27.4% | 15.6% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maddy Brownsea | 3.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Alex Verdoia | 5.3% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Baldassare | 5.6% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Maddy Brownsea | 3.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Saul Rosen | 5.2% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Hogan | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 5.3% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Keiran Hansen | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 10.7% | 18.3% | 22.9% | 13.1% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Anderson | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| David Luu | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 16.4% | 26.4% | 19.9% | 0.0% |
| Tim Wetzel | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 20.8% | 57.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 5.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Grant Lin | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 15.2% | 18.6% | 13.6% | 6.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.