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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Berkeley1.62+2.80vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.18+2.88vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley1.31+1.52vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.35+0.40vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.53+1.46vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz0.02+1.88vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-1.66vs Predicted
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8California State University Channel Islands-0.85+2.05vs Predicted
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9University of California at Davis-0.43+0.20vs Predicted
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10California State University Monterey Bay0.14-2.40vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego0.43-4.38vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-0.84-2.78vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.74-3.97vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-0.85-4.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.8University of California at Berkeley1.620.2%1st Place
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4.88University of California at Santa Barbara1.180.1%1st Place
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4.52University of California at Berkeley1.310.1%1st Place
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4.4University of California at Santa Barbara1.350.2%1st Place
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6.46University of California at Berkeley0.530.1%1st Place
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7.88University of California at Santa Cruz0.020.0%1st Place
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5.34Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.1%1st Place
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10.05California State University Channel Islands-0.850.0%1st Place
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9.2University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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7.6California State University Monterey Bay0.140.1%1st Place
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6.62University of California at San Diego0.430.1%1st Place
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10.22University of California at San Diego-0.840.0%1st Place
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10.03Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.740.0%1st Place
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10.05California State University Channel Islands-0.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyra Oakes | 19.9% | 16.3% | 15.6% | 13.1% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Burrow | 11.0% | 12.7% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Henry Keenan | 12.7% | 15.8% | 13.6% | 12.8% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Pekin | 15.3% | 13.8% | 13.0% | 14.2% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Thomas | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Kip Wanaselja | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 11.7% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Steward | 1.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 20.1% | 24.0% | 0.0% |
| Alana McSween | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 13.0% | 14.5% | 16.6% | 13.4% | 0.0% |
| Alicia Ward | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 5.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Hayley Chong | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 15.3% | 18.2% | 26.9% | 0.0% |
| Kevin McManus | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 11.4% | 14.7% | 19.6% | 21.9% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Steward | 1.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 20.1% | 24.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.