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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Berkeley0.53+5.58vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley1.31+2.52vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.18+1.87vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley1.62-0.23vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.35-0.68vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz0.02+1.90vs Predicted
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7California State University Channel Islands-0.85+3.00vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-2.59vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-0.84+1.11vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis-0.43-0.86vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay0.14-3.58vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.74-3.00vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego0.43-7.02vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-0.85-5.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.58University of California at Berkeley0.530.1%1st Place
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4.52University of California at Berkeley1.310.1%1st Place
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4.87University of California at Santa Barbara1.180.1%1st Place
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3.77University of California at Berkeley1.620.2%1st Place
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4.32University of California at Santa Barbara1.350.2%1st Place
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7.9University of California at Santa Cruz0.020.0%1st Place
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10.0California State University Channel Islands-0.850.0%1st Place
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5.41Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.1%1st Place
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10.11University of California at San Diego-0.840.0%1st Place
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9.14University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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7.42California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
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10.0Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.740.0%1st Place
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6.98University of California at San Diego0.430.1%1st Place
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10.0California State University Channel Islands-0.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Thomas | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 12.1% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Keenan | 14.4% | 13.0% | 14.0% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Burrow | 11.1% | 14.4% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 9.9% | 11.0% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kyra Oakes | 20.2% | 18.0% | 15.5% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Pekin | 16.7% | 14.9% | 12.8% | 12.9% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kip Wanaselja | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 13.8% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Steward | 1.6% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 14.6% | 18.4% | 24.8% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 10.6% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Hayley Chong | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 14.3% | 18.9% | 26.3% | 0.0% |
| Alana McSween | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 10.0% | 12.7% | 15.1% | 16.2% | 12.6% | 0.0% |
| Alicia Ward | 4.2% | 3.7% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| Kevin McManus | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 10.0% | 14.6% | 18.7% | 24.0% | 0.0% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Steward | 1.6% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 14.6% | 18.4% | 24.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.