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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.35+2.36vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley1.62+0.79vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley1.31+0.54vs Predicted
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5University of California at Davis-0.43+4.16vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara1.18-1.24vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-1.61vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.53-1.55vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-0.84+1.07vs Predicted
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10California State University Channel Islands-0.85+0.14vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.74-1.19vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.02-4.25vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay0.14-5.17vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego0.43-8.04vs Predicted
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16California State University Channel Islands-0.85-5.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.36University of California at Santa Barbara1.350.2%1st Place
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3.79University of California at Berkeley1.620.2%1st Place
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4.54University of California at Berkeley1.310.1%1st Place
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9.16University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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4.76University of California at Santa Barbara1.180.1%1st Place
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5.39Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.1%1st Place
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6.45University of California at Berkeley0.530.1%1st Place
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10.07University of California at San Diego-0.840.0%1st Place
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10.14California State University Channel Islands-0.850.0%1st Place
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9.81Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.740.0%1st Place
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7.75University of California at Santa Cruz0.020.0%1st Place
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7.83California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
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6.96University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
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10.14California State University Channel Islands-0.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Pekin | 16.2% | 13.4% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyra Oakes | 19.6% | 17.0% | 16.4% | 13.9% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Keenan | 13.8% | 14.3% | 13.4% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alana McSween | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 14.7% | 15.7% | 13.4% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Burrow | 12.9% | 13.6% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 10.6% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Thomas | 8.0% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Hayley Chong | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 20.7% | 24.5% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Steward | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 9.5% | 14.2% | 20.7% | 25.6% | 0.0% |
| Kevin McManus | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 11.2% | 13.9% | 16.6% | 23.0% | 0.0% |
| Kip Wanaselja | 3.8% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| Alicia Ward | 3.6% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 4.6% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Steward | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 9.5% | 14.2% | 20.7% | 25.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.