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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.18+3.83vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley1.62+0.78vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.35+0.45vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley1.31-0.51vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-0.60vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley0.53-0.53vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego-0.84+1.98vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay0.14-1.41vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.74-0.11vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-0.43-1.86vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.02-4.27vs Predicted
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13California State University Channel Islands-0.85-2.76vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego0.43-8.00vs Predicted
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16California State University Channel Islands-0.85-5.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.83University of California at Santa Barbara1.180.1%1st Place
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3.78University of California at Berkeley1.620.2%1st Place
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4.45University of California at Santa Barbara1.350.1%1st Place
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4.49University of California at Berkeley1.310.1%1st Place
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5.4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.1%1st Place
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6.47University of California at Berkeley0.530.1%1st Place
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9.98University of California at San Diego-0.840.0%1st Place
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7.59California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
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9.89Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.740.0%1st Place
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9.14University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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7.73University of California at Santa Cruz0.020.0%1st Place
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10.24California State University Channel Islands-0.850.0%1st Place
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7.0University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
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10.24California State University Channel Islands-0.850.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Burrow | 13.4% | 11.3% | 13.0% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kyra Oakes | 19.1% | 17.9% | 16.5% | 13.9% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Pekin | 13.3% | 16.7% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Henry Keenan | 15.0% | 13.0% | 13.5% | 13.8% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 11.2% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Thomas | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Hayley Chong | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 20.6% | 24.1% | 0.0% |
| Alicia Ward | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 12.9% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Kevin McManus | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 16.1% | 16.7% | 23.3% | 0.0% |
| Alana McSween | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 14.6% | 16.7% | 13.1% | 0.0% |
| Kip Wanaselja | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 8.1% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Steward | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 14.1% | 18.4% | 27.9% | 0.0% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 4.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Steward | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 14.1% | 18.4% | 27.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.