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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.18+3.83vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley1.62+1.79vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.35+1.46vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley1.31+0.50vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.53+1.45vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz0.02+1.92vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93-1.62vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis-0.43+1.05vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.74+0.92vs Predicted
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11California State University Channel Islands-0.85-0.89vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay0.14-4.60vs Predicted
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13California State University Channel Islands-0.85-2.89vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-0.84-4.79vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego0.43-9.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.83University of California at Santa Barbara1.180.1%1st Place
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3.79University of California at Berkeley1.620.2%1st Place
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4.46University of California at Santa Barbara1.350.1%1st Place
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4.5University of California at Berkeley1.310.1%1st Place
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6.45University of California at Berkeley0.530.1%1st Place
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7.92University of California at Santa Cruz0.020.0%1st Place
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5.38Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.1%1st Place
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9.05University of California at Davis-0.430.0%1st Place
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9.92Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.740.0%1st Place
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10.11California State University Channel Islands-0.850.0%1st Place
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7.4California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
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10.11California State University Channel Islands-0.850.0%1st Place
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10.21University of California at San Diego-0.840.0%1st Place
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6.98University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Burrow | 13.1% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kyra Oakes | 18.9% | 17.0% | 18.1% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Pekin | 14.1% | 14.8% | 13.5% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Keenan | 14.6% | 13.6% | 12.5% | 14.0% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Thomas | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Kip Wanaselja | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 11.5% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Alana McSween | 2.3% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 15.8% | 14.9% | 12.0% | 0.0% |
| Kevin McManus | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 13.5% | 19.4% | 22.7% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Steward | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 10.1% | 14.4% | 17.1% | 27.2% | 0.0% |
| Alicia Ward | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Steward | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 10.1% | 14.4% | 17.1% | 27.2% | 0.0% |
| Hayley Chong | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 14.1% | 18.8% | 27.2% | 0.0% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 4.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.