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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Middlebury College1.50+2.37vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.00+2.24vs Predicted
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3University of New Hampshire1.35+0.64vs Predicted
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4Sacred Heart University0.12+1.62vs Predicted
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5Amherst College0.89-0.50vs Predicted
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6Wesleyan University1.45-2.49vs Predicted
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7Worcester Polytechnic Institute1.60-3.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.37Middlebury College1.500.2%1st Place
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4.24Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.000.1%1st Place
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3.64University of New Hampshire1.350.2%1st Place
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5.62Sacred Heart University0.120.0%1st Place
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4.5Amherst College0.890.1%1st Place
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3.51Wesleyan University1.450.2%1st Place
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3.13Worcester Polytechnic Institute1.600.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Kerby-Miller | 19.7% | 18.1% | 17.1% | 16.9% | 12.6% | 10.4% | 5.2% |
| Ryan Novak-Smith | 10.8% | 12.7% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 18.0% | 18.6% | 13.1% |
| William Dykes | 16.6% | 16.2% | 15.5% | 17.1% | 14.2% | 13.5% | 6.9% |
| Brian Reilly | 3.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 17.9% | 47.5% |
| Noah Brayer | 9.2% | 10.0% | 13.7% | 12.3% | 16.6% | 20.2% | 18.0% |
| Lewis Fowler-Gerace | 16.9% | 18.7% | 17.3% | 14.8% | 14.3% | 11.9% | 6.1% |
| Norbert Mongeon | 23.5% | 18.3% | 17.8% | 16.4% | 13.3% | 7.5% | 3.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.