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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Worcester Polytechnic Institute1.60+2.22vs Predicted
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2University of New Hampshire1.35+1.63vs Predicted
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3Middlebury College1.50+0.42vs Predicted
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4Sacred Heart University0.12+1.64vs Predicted
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5Amherst College0.89-0.53vs Predicted
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6Wesleyan University1.45-2.50vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.00-2.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.22Worcester Polytechnic Institute1.600.2%1st Place
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3.63University of New Hampshire1.350.2%1st Place
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3.42Middlebury College1.500.2%1st Place
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5.64Sacred Heart University0.120.0%1st Place
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4.47Amherst College0.890.1%1st Place
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3.5Wesleyan University1.450.2%1st Place
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4.13Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.000.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norbert Mongeon | 22.0% | 19.4% | 17.7% | 15.5% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 4.9% |
| William Dykes | 15.8% | 15.9% | 15.6% | 19.9% | 15.3% | 10.4% | 7.1% |
| Jack Kerby-Miller | 18.4% | 18.7% | 16.5% | 16.9% | 12.9% | 11.7% | 4.9% |
| Brian Reilly | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 11.5% | 16.6% | 48.9% |
| Noah Brayer | 9.1% | 10.3% | 13.9% | 12.1% | 17.6% | 20.0% | 17.0% |
| Lewis Fowler-Gerace | 17.9% | 17.8% | 17.1% | 14.4% | 14.5% | 13.3% | 5.0% |
| Ryan Novak-Smith | 13.1% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 13.6% | 17.1% | 18.6% | 12.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.