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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.38+7.09vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.91+8.11vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island3.84+3.31vs Predicted
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4Yale University4.10+1.19vs Predicted
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5Eckerd College3.14+3.86vs Predicted
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6Stanford University2.92+3.85vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.61+4.11vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College3.21+0.48vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.52+2.47vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont2.99-0.22vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College3.06-1.65vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College2.75-1.11vs Predicted
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13Harvard University2.75-2.63vs Predicted
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14Columbia University1.30+1.19vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.38-3.05vs Predicted
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16Boston University3.42-8.18vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.73-6.18vs Predicted
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18Boston College4.01-12.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.09Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
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10.11Tufts University2.910.0%1st Place
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6.31University of Rhode Island3.840.1%1st Place
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5.19Yale University4.100.1%1st Place
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8.86Eckerd College3.140.1%1st Place
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9.85Stanford University2.920.0%1st Place
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11.11Fordham University2.610.0%1st Place
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8.48Dartmouth College3.210.1%1st Place
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11.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.520.0%1st Place
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9.78University of Vermont2.990.1%1st Place
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9.35Bowdoin College3.060.1%1st Place
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10.89Connecticut College2.750.0%1st Place
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10.37Harvard University2.750.0%1st Place
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15.19Columbia University1.300.0%1st Place
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11.95U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.380.0%1st Place
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7.82Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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10.82Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.730.0%1st Place
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5.36Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| MaryClaire Kiernan | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 2.8% |
| Rachel Bryer | 10.2% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Morgan Kiss | 14.0% | 15.6% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Melany Johnson | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.7% |
| Maeve White | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.5% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 4.4% |
| Sarah Williams | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Liana Folger | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 5.8% |
| Megan Yeigh | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 2.6% |
| Erin Mullins | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.5% |
| Liz Dubovik | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 6.2% |
| Taylor Ladd | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.6% |
| Mary Margaret Meehan | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 48.7% |
| Devon Rohde | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 9.2% |
| Hannah Polster | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Laura Dunphy | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 5.1% |
| Erika Reineke | 13.1% | 12.7% | 13.6% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.