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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University4.26+4.21vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.36+2.77vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College3.05+6.64vs Predicted
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4Washington College2.84+6.12vs Predicted
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5University of Buffalo2.44+6.70vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.39+2.12vs Predicted
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7George Washington University3.41+0.99vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy3.74-1.31vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.24-0.34vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute2.29+2.62vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia2.39+1.13vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91-5.51vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.35-1.02vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University2.21-1.62vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University3.82-8.59vs Predicted
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16Hampton University2.28-3.55vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania3.16-7.88vs Predicted
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18Villanova University1.59-3.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.21Fordham University4.260.1%1st Place
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4.77Georgetown University4.360.1%1st Place
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9.64SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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10.12Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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11.7University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
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8.12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.390.1%1st Place
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7.99George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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6.69U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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8.66Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.240.0%1st Place
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12.62Webb Institute2.290.0%1st Place
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12.13University of Virginia2.390.0%1st Place
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6.49St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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11.98Cornell University2.350.0%1st Place
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12.38Christopher Newport University2.210.0%1st Place
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6.41Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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12.45Hampton University2.280.0%1st Place
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9.12University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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14.51Villanova University1.590.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olin Paine | 13.8% | 13.7% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nevin Snow | 14.0% | 14.4% | 14.4% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nick Valente | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Ryan Bailey | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.2% |
| Griffin Orr | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 8.2% |
| Charles Lomax | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Kai Friesecke | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Mary Hall | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Eddie Cox | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Cody Stansky | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 13.8% | 11.5% |
| Christopher Craven | 2.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 10.9% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Schofield | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 9.7% |
| Austin Powers | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 11.4% |
| Esteban Forrer | 10.3% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Veronica Maccari | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 13.6% | 9.5% |
| Jack Swikart | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Domenic Re | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 16.0% | 31.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.