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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Virginia1.99+10.20vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.60+3.64vs Predicted
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3Fordham University3.25+3.98vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.44+2.31vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.51+0.91vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College3.25+1.11vs Predicted
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7Washington College2.45+2.83vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.54+1.39vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.56+4.02vs Predicted
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10George Washington University3.10-2.58vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University3.67-5.30vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.87-3.66vs Predicted
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13Hampton University3.02-5.10vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.82-5.29vs Predicted
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15University of Buffalo0.75-0.23vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University2.24-6.30vs Predicted
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18Villanova University1.15-3.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.2University of Virginia1.990.0%1st Place
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5.64St. Mary's College of Maryland3.600.1%1st Place
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6.98Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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6.31U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
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5.91Georgetown University3.510.1%1st Place
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7.11SUNY Maritime College3.250.1%1st Place
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9.83Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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9.39Cornell University2.540.0%1st Place
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13.02Webb Institute1.560.0%1st Place
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7.42George Washington University3.100.1%1st Place
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5.7Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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8.34University of Pennsylvania2.870.0%1st Place
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7.9Hampton University3.020.1%1st Place
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8.71U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.820.0%1st Place
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14.77University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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10.7Christopher Newport University2.240.0%1st Place
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14.07Villanova University1.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Patterson | 3.7% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 12.3% | 14.5% | 10.6% | 5.0% |
| Chase Quinn | 11.3% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Michael Popp | 9.0% | 11.4% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Alex Post | 11.5% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Zachary Hill | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Eric Siegel | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 4.7% | 1.0% |
| Connor Kelter | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 1.3% |
| Casey Brown | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 12.4% | 14.9% | 19.8% | 14.2% |
| Roger Dorr | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Augie Dale | 13.1% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Drew Gallagher | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Maximilian Kuester | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Max Neubelt | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Rory Mess | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 10.1% | 18.0% | 44.8% |
| Xander Van Beurden | 2.9% | 1.4% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 7.6% | 3.1% |
| David Alldian | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 23.2% | 27.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.