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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College3.18+5.60vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.51+7.00vs Predicted
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3Boston University3.70+1.90vs Predicted
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4Middlebury College1.35+8.83vs Predicted
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5Salve Regina University2.45+4.03vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island3.84-1.63vs Predicted
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7Brown University1.81+4.39vs Predicted
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8Harvard University2.96-0.85vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University2.60-0.53vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont2.99-2.67vs Predicted
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11University of Connecticut1.13+2.81vs Predicted
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12Tufts University3.49-6.33vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.81+1.41vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College2.71-6.10vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.97-0.78vs Predicted
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16Boston College2.59-7.41vs Predicted
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17McGill University1.56-4.48vs Predicted
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18University of New Hampshire1.35-5.19vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.6Bowdoin College3.180.1%1st Place
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9.0Roger Williams University2.510.0%1st Place
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4.9Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
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12.83Middlebury College1.350.0%1st Place
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9.03Salve Regina University2.450.1%1st Place
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4.37University of Rhode Island3.840.2%1st Place
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11.39Brown University1.810.0%1st Place
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7.15Harvard University2.960.1%1st Place
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8.47Northeastern University2.600.0%1st Place
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7.33University of Vermont2.990.1%1st Place
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13.81University of Connecticut1.130.0%1st Place
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5.67Tufts University3.490.1%1st Place
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14.41Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.810.0%1st Place
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7.9Connecticut College2.710.1%1st Place
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14.22U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.970.0%1st Place
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8.59Boston College2.590.0%1st Place
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12.52McGill University1.560.0%1st Place
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12.81University of New Hampshire1.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack McGuire | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Scott Booth | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Ryan Astwood | 13.2% | 12.7% | 14.8% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Terry Duncan | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 12.1% | 12.6% | 10.8% |
| John Silvestri | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Rachel Bryer | 16.5% | 16.6% | 14.2% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Bailey | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 3.7% |
| Matthew Mollerus | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jackson Hamilton | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Megan Yeigh | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Jennifer Lee | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 17.4% | 17.5% |
| John Rolander | 11.9% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Calderwood | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 13.3% | 16.7% | 25.1% |
| Walter Florio | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Matthew Orgill | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 16.3% | 21.9% |
| Jacob Martz | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Renee Torrie | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 8.8% |
| William Dykes | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 14.3% | 10.1% | 10.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.