← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Tufts University3.49+4.51vs Predicted
-
2Boston College2.59+6.70vs Predicted
-
3Harvard University2.96+4.29vs Predicted
-
4Brown University1.81+7.24vs Predicted
-
5Boston University3.70-0.26vs Predicted
-
6Salve Regina University2.21+3.95vs Predicted
-
7Connecticut College2.71+1.00vs Predicted
-
8U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.97+6.03vs Predicted
-
9University of New Hampshire1.35+3.95vs Predicted
-
10University of Vermont2.99-2.75vs Predicted
-
11Northeastern University2.60-2.43vs Predicted
-
12University of Rhode Island3.84-7.39vs Predicted
-
13McGill University1.56-0.92vs Predicted
-
14Roger Williams University2.51-5.47vs Predicted
-
15Bowdoin College3.18-8.70vs Predicted
-
16Middlebury College1.35-2.95vs Predicted
-
17University of Connecticut1.13-3.25vs Predicted
-
18Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.81-3.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.51Tufts University3.490.1%1st Place
-
8.7Boston College2.590.0%1st Place
-
7.29Harvard University2.960.1%1st Place
-
11.24Brown University1.810.0%1st Place
-
4.74Boston University3.700.2%1st Place
-
9.95Salve Regina University2.210.0%1st Place
-
8.0Connecticut College2.710.1%1st Place
-
14.03U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.970.0%1st Place
-
12.95University of New Hampshire1.350.0%1st Place
-
7.25University of Vermont2.990.1%1st Place
-
8.57Northeastern University2.600.0%1st Place
-
4.61University of Rhode Island3.840.2%1st Place
-
12.08McGill University1.560.0%1st Place
-
8.53Roger Williams University2.510.0%1st Place
-
6.3Bowdoin College3.180.1%1st Place
-
13.05Middlebury College1.350.0%1st Place
-
13.75University of Connecticut1.130.0%1st Place
-
14.44Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Rolander | 12.2% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Martz | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Matthew Mollerus | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Peter Bailey | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 4.3% |
| Ryan Astwood | 16.3% | 15.8% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sean Beaulieu | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| Walter Florio | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 5.6% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Orgill | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 17.3% | 21.1% |
| William Dykes | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 13.3% | 12.7% | 10.2% |
| Megan Yeigh | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jackson Hamilton | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Rachel Bryer | 17.1% | 13.4% | 15.2% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Renee Torrie | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 7.1% |
| Scott Booth | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Jack McGuire | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Terry Duncan | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 12.5% |
| Jennifer Lee | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 13.9% | 15.2% | 17.5% |
| Alexander Calderwood | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 13.1% | 18.0% | 23.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.