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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College3.23+5.13vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+2.78vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+2.83vs Predicted
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4George Washington University3.49+1.41vs Predicted
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5Boston University3.70-0.11vs Predicted
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6University of Buffalo2.44+2.83vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.54+1.43vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.80-0.42vs Predicted
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9University of Connecticut1.96+1.20vs Predicted
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10Salve Regina University2.45-1.21vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University2.60-2.78vs Predicted
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12Syracuse University0.38+1.74vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute0.85-0.04vs Predicted
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14Brown University3.27-7.98vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook2.59-6.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.13Connecticut College3.230.1%1st Place
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4.78U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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5.83Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.1%1st Place
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5.41George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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4.89Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
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8.83University of Buffalo2.440.0%1st Place
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8.43Cornell University2.540.0%1st Place
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7.58Bowdoin College2.800.1%1st Place
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10.2University of Connecticut1.960.0%1st Place
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8.79Salve Regina University2.450.0%1st Place
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8.22Northeastern University2.600.0%1st Place
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13.74Syracuse University0.380.0%1st Place
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12.96Webb Institute0.850.0%1st Place
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6.02Brown University3.270.1%1st Place
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8.2SUNY Stony Brook2.590.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Kopp | 10.0% | 8.2% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Nikole Barnes | 13.9% | 14.6% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elliott Morrill | 10.2% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 11.9% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Astwood | 14.4% | 13.3% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Orr | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 5.8% | 1.7% |
| Connor Kelter | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 5.5% | 1.3% |
| Matthew Lyons | 6.8% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Michael Rottier | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 16.7% | 13.6% | 4.4% |
| John Silvestri | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 6.6% | 1.1% |
| Jackson Hamilton | 3.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 4.1% | 1.4% |
| Nicholas Woviotis | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 23.2% | 55.6% |
| Sean Walker | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 9.9% | 32.6% | 32.6% |
| Nathan Allman | 9.0% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Vidar Minkovsky | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.