Race 4A

atlantic-coast-tournament

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Elliott Morrill 12.0% 8.8% 10.7% 9.4% 9.2% 8.0% 8.7% 8.1% 7.8% 6.5% 4.0% 3.5% 2.0% 0.8% 0.5%
Nathan Allman 9.3% 11.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 9.1% 8.7% 6.4% 8.5% 6.5% 4.4% 3.9% 2.3% 0.6% 0.3%
Nikole Barnes 14.3% 12.8% 12.8% 10.6% 10.7% 9.5% 7.9% 6.9% 5.5% 4.4% 2.6% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Matthew Lyons 5.5% 6.5% 6.9% 7.5% 7.0% 7.4% 7.4% 7.8% 8.1% 8.7% 10.4% 7.5% 5.5% 3.1% 0.7%
Brendan Shanahan 11.0% 12.9% 8.9% 10.1% 10.6% 9.6% 9.0% 7.7% 6.9% 4.6% 4.3% 2.3% 1.3% 0.8% 0.0%
Griffin Orr 3.8% 3.7% 5.2% 5.0% 5.4% 4.1% 7.1% 8.5% 7.3% 10.5% 10.4% 10.8% 10.7% 5.6% 1.9%
Bryce Kopp 9.6% 9.0% 8.3% 10.2% 8.4% 11.4% 7.9% 8.6% 7.3% 6.3% 5.4% 4.0% 2.4% 1.2% 0.0%
Connor Kelter 4.4% 5.0% 4.0% 7.2% 5.1% 6.2% 6.7% 8.2% 7.6% 9.0% 9.9% 10.8% 9.5% 5.1% 1.3%
John Silvestri 3.8% 3.9% 5.2% 4.3% 5.9% 6.7% 6.5% 7.1% 9.9% 9.1% 9.7% 10.9% 10.5% 5.0% 1.5%
Ryan Astwood 14.1% 12.5% 15.1% 10.0% 10.5% 9.0% 7.9% 6.7% 5.7% 3.5% 2.6% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Vidar Minkovsky 4.5% 5.4% 5.0% 5.7% 7.2% 6.7% 6.3% 8.5% 6.8% 8.8% 9.9% 8.8% 8.1% 6.8% 1.5%
Michael Rottier 2.3% 2.1% 1.6% 2.2% 3.6% 4.1% 6.1% 5.4% 5.6% 7.3% 8.1% 13.2% 19.6% 14.3% 4.5%
Jackson Hamilton 4.2% 4.3% 5.3% 6.8% 5.5% 5.7% 6.1% 6.6% 8.7% 9.6% 11.5% 9.7% 9.5% 5.5% 1.0%
Nicholas Woviotis 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 1.0% 1.4% 1.4% 1.6% 2.0% 2.5% 4.5% 7.2% 22.5% 53.5%
Sean Walker 0.6% 0.9% 1.1% 1.2% 1.0% 1.5% 2.3% 2.1% 2.7% 3.2% 4.3% 6.8% 10.5% 28.5% 33.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.