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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+2.26vs Predicted
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2Boston University2.94+3.96vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College3.21+2.29vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.03+1.84vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.38+2.69vs Predicted
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6University of Connecticut1.13+4.94vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45-2.26vs Predicted
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8George Washington University3.41-3.12vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University2.05-0.45vs Predicted
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10University of Buffalo0.75+1.77vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.52-3.62vs Predicted
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12Boston University2.81-5.33vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute1.63-3.09vs Predicted
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14Syracuse University-0.93+0.19vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook0.05-2.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.26Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.3%1st Place
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5.96Boston University2.940.1%1st Place
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5.29Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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5.84Brown University3.030.1%1st Place
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7.69Cornell University2.380.1%1st Place
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10.94University of Connecticut1.130.0%1st Place
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4.74U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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4.88George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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8.55Northeastern University2.050.0%1st Place
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11.77University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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7.38Bowdoin College2.520.0%1st Place
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6.67Boston University2.810.1%1st Place
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9.91Webb Institute1.630.0%1st Place
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14.19Syracuse University-0.930.0%1st Place
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12.93SUNY Stony Brook0.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greiner Hobbs | 26.8% | 20.8% | 14.5% | 12.6% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Saldi | 7.7% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 10.8% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Barry | 7.6% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Lee | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 12.9% | 19.3% | 21.8% | 12.2% | 3.6% |
| Dana Rohde | 12.9% | 12.0% | 13.2% | 13.9% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 12.3% | 12.6% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Victoria McGruer | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 13.4% | 13.0% | 10.7% | 6.8% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Rory Mess | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 10.4% | 14.5% | 25.0% | 21.7% | 7.2% |
| Chester Jacobs | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Welsh | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Isaac Kremers | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 14.3% | 17.8% | 14.0% | 6.9% | 1.3% |
| Kevin McCandless | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 7.3% | 17.2% | 66.0% |
| Cody Murphy | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 8.1% | 16.2% | 37.0% | 21.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.