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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.03+4.78vs Predicted
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2Boston University2.94+3.98vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.52+4.21vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08-0.69vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College3.21+0.46vs Predicted
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6George Washington University3.41-1.19vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45-2.30vs Predicted
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8Boston University2.81-1.54vs Predicted
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9University of Connecticut1.13+1.94vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.63-0.17vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.38-3.29vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.05-3.15vs Predicted
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13University of Buffalo0.75-1.13vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook0.05-1.01vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University-0.93-0.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.78Brown University3.030.1%1st Place
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5.98Boston University2.940.1%1st Place
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7.21Bowdoin College2.520.1%1st Place
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3.31Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.2%1st Place
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5.46Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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4.81George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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4.7U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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6.46Boston University2.810.1%1st Place
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10.94University of Connecticut1.130.0%1st Place
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9.83Webb Institute1.630.0%1st Place
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7.71Cornell University2.380.0%1st Place
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8.85Northeastern University2.050.0%1st Place
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11.87University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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12.99SUNY Stony Brook0.050.0%1st Place
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14.12Syracuse University-0.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Barry | 9.8% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Michael Saldi | 7.5% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Chester Jacobs | 5.5% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 23.5% | 21.9% | 14.6% | 14.0% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 9.7% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 13.2% | 10.4% | 13.0% | 13.4% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dana Rohde | 13.1% | 13.9% | 12.9% | 11.4% | 12.9% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Welsh | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Lee | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 14.1% | 18.2% | 19.6% | 13.0% | 3.1% |
| Isaac Kremers | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 16.3% | 15.7% | 12.8% | 6.8% | 1.2% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Victoria McGruer | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 15.4% | 13.6% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| Rory Mess | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 14.6% | 25.3% | 22.5% | 8.3% |
| Cody Murphy | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 5.1% | 9.0% | 18.2% | 34.2% | 22.6% |
| Kevin McCandless | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 7.0% | 18.3% | 64.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.