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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+2.26vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.03+3.69vs Predicted
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3Boston University2.94+3.02vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45+0.73vs Predicted
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5George Washington University3.41-0.10vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University2.05+2.70vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.38+0.62vs Predicted
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8University of Connecticut1.13+2.95vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.52-1.73vs Predicted
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10University of Buffalo0.75+1.80vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.63-1.24vs Predicted
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12Boston University2.81-5.36vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College3.21-7.46vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook0.05-1.02vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University-0.93-0.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.26Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.3%1st Place
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5.69Brown University3.030.1%1st Place
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6.02Boston University2.940.1%1st Place
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4.73U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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4.9George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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8.7Northeastern University2.050.0%1st Place
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7.62Cornell University2.380.1%1st Place
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10.95University of Connecticut1.130.0%1st Place
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7.27Bowdoin College2.520.0%1st Place
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11.8University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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9.76Webb Institute1.630.0%1st Place
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6.64Boston University2.810.1%1st Place
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5.54Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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12.98SUNY Stony Brook0.050.0%1st Place
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14.14Syracuse University-0.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greiner Hobbs | 26.2% | 22.0% | 14.3% | 11.9% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Barry | 8.3% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Michael Saldi | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Dana Rohde | 13.7% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 13.0% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Victoria McGruer | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 13.0% | 13.2% | 13.5% | 7.4% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Jennifer Lee | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 17.3% | 22.9% | 13.3% | 3.5% |
| Chester Jacobs | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Rory Mess | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 14.8% | 25.8% | 21.5% | 7.2% |
| Isaac Kremers | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 11.5% | 14.6% | 16.2% | 13.5% | 6.2% | 1.4% |
| Charles Welsh | 6.1% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 8.7% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cody Murphy | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 5.4% | 8.7% | 16.0% | 37.2% | 21.6% |
| Kevin McCandless | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 17.9% | 65.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.