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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.03+4.80vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.38+5.54vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.52+4.25vs Predicted
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4George Washington University3.41+0.79vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College3.21+0.43vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University2.05+2.65vs Predicted
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7Boston University2.94-0.90vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45-3.21vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08-5.77vs Predicted
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10Boston University2.81-3.42vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.63-1.26vs Predicted
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12University of Connecticut1.13-0.85vs Predicted
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13University of Buffalo0.75-1.13vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook0.05-1.04vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University-0.93-0.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.8Brown University3.030.1%1st Place
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7.54Cornell University2.380.0%1st Place
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7.25Bowdoin College2.520.1%1st Place
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4.79George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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5.43Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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8.65Northeastern University2.050.0%1st Place
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6.1Boston University2.940.1%1st Place
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4.79U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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3.23Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.2%1st Place
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6.58Boston University2.810.1%1st Place
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9.74Webb Institute1.630.0%1st Place
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11.15University of Connecticut1.130.0%1st Place
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11.87University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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12.96SUNY Stony Brook0.050.0%1st Place
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14.13Syracuse University-0.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Barry | 9.7% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Chester Jacobs | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 12.7% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Kai Friesecke | 12.7% | 13.0% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 10.2% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Victoria McGruer | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 12.6% | 14.9% | 11.2% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Michael Saldi | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Dana Rohde | 12.4% | 14.2% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 23.6% | 22.0% | 15.8% | 14.7% | 10.5% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Welsh | 6.6% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Kremers | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 16.5% | 16.7% | 12.4% | 5.6% | 1.5% |
| Jennifer Lee | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 11.3% | 20.3% | 20.8% | 15.9% | 2.3% |
| Rory Mess | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 15.2% | 25.4% | 21.4% | 8.7% |
| Cody Murphy | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 9.2% | 18.9% | 33.3% | 22.3% |
| Kevin McCandless | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 6.7% | 18.7% | 64.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.