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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.03+4.75vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45+2.65vs Predicted
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3George Washington University3.41+1.80vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08-0.67vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.38+2.71vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.52+1.28vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College3.21-1.74vs Predicted
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8University of Connecticut1.13+2.99vs Predicted
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9Boston University2.94-2.93vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.05-1.33vs Predicted
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11University of Buffalo0.75+0.79vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.63-2.09vs Predicted
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13Boston University2.81-6.33vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook0.05-1.02vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University-0.93-0.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.75Brown University3.030.1%1st Place
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4.65U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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4.8George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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3.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.2%1st Place
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7.71Cornell University2.380.0%1st Place
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7.28Bowdoin College2.520.0%1st Place
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5.26Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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10.99University of Connecticut1.130.0%1st Place
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6.07Boston University2.940.1%1st Place
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8.67Northeastern University2.050.0%1st Place
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11.79University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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9.91Webb Institute1.630.0%1st Place
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6.67Boston University2.810.1%1st Place
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12.98SUNY Stony Brook0.050.0%1st Place
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14.14Syracuse University-0.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Barry | 10.0% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 12.1% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Dana Rohde | 11.9% | 16.2% | 12.6% | 13.4% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 12.7% | 12.2% | 13.1% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 24.3% | 19.4% | 16.4% | 14.5% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Woloshyn | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Chester Jacobs | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 5.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 11.5% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Lee | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 11.9% | 19.1% | 20.6% | 14.2% | 3.6% |
| Michael Saldi | 6.7% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Victoria McGruer | 2.8% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 14.1% | 13.3% | 11.0% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 0.3% |
| Rory Mess | 0.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 9.3% | 13.7% | 24.6% | 21.0% | 9.1% |
| Isaac Kremers | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 12.2% | 16.3% | 17.3% | 14.0% | 5.9% | 0.5% |
| Charles Welsh | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 9.7% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Cody Murphy | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 9.0% | 16.8% | 36.8% | 21.3% |
| Kevin McCandless | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 4.4% | 7.7% | 16.8% | 65.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.