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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+2.33vs Predicted
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2Boston University2.94+4.08vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45+1.71vs Predicted
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4George Washington University3.41+0.87vs Predicted
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5University of Connecticut1.13+5.96vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University2.05+2.74vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.63+2.74vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College2.52-0.57vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.77-2.31vs Predicted
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10Brown University3.03-3.94vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College3.21-5.51vs Predicted
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12Boston University2.81-5.21vs Predicted
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13University of Buffalo0.75-1.12vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook0.05-1.04vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University-1.14-0.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.2%1st Place
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6.08Boston University2.940.1%1st Place
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4.71U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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4.87George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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10.96University of Connecticut1.130.0%1st Place
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8.74Northeastern University2.050.0%1st Place
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9.74Webb Institute1.630.0%1st Place
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7.43Bowdoin College2.520.1%1st Place
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6.69Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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6.06Brown University3.030.1%1st Place
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5.49Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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6.79Boston University2.810.1%1st Place
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11.88University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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12.96SUNY Stony Brook0.050.0%1st Place
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14.29Syracuse University-1.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greiner Hobbs | 25.0% | 21.7% | 15.2% | 11.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Saldi | 6.9% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Dana Rohde | 13.8% | 11.7% | 13.7% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 12.2% | 14.5% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Lee | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 11.0% | 20.1% | 20.7% | 15.2% | 2.3% |
| Victoria McGruer | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 12.7% | 12.9% | 13.6% | 12.7% | 7.4% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Isaac Kremers | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 12.3% | 17.7% | 16.7% | 12.6% | 5.5% | 1.1% |
| Chester Jacobs | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 6.8% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| James Barry | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 10.0% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Welsh | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Rory Mess | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 14.2% | 27.9% | 22.2% | 7.0% |
| Cody Murphy | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 5.2% | 10.2% | 17.5% | 37.6% | 19.1% |
| Claire Michaud | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 15.7% | 70.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.