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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+2.33vs Predicted
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2George Washington University3.41+2.78vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College3.21+2.41vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.52+3.38vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45-0.12vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.03-0.05vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.77-0.41vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.63+1.83vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University2.05-0.32vs Predicted
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10University of Buffalo0.75+1.78vs Predicted
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11Boston University2.94-4.76vs Predicted
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12University of Connecticut1.13-0.84vs Predicted
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13Boston University2.81-6.26vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook0.05-1.04vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University-1.14-0.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.33Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.3%1st Place
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4.78George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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5.41Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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7.38Bowdoin College2.520.0%1st Place
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4.88U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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5.95Brown University3.030.1%1st Place
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6.59Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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9.83Webb Institute1.630.0%1st Place
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8.68Northeastern University2.050.0%1st Place
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11.78University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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6.24Boston University2.940.1%1st Place
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11.16University of Connecticut1.130.0%1st Place
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6.74Boston University2.810.1%1st Place
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12.96SUNY Stony Brook0.050.0%1st Place
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14.29Syracuse University-1.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greiner Hobbs | 25.4% | 21.0% | 15.5% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 11.8% | 15.0% | 11.0% | 13.9% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 10.5% | 8.2% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chester Jacobs | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Dana Rohde | 12.7% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Barry | 7.7% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Kremers | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 15.8% | 17.2% | 14.3% | 5.8% | 0.9% |
| Victoria McGruer | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 15.2% | 11.5% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Rory Mess | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 17.9% | 23.5% | 22.3% | 6.3% |
| Michael Saldi | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Lee | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 8.1% | 13.3% | 17.9% | 23.8% | 15.0% | 2.1% |
| Charles Welsh | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Cody Murphy | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 9.9% | 16.5% | 39.2% | 18.6% |
| Claire Michaud | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 6.6% | 13.2% | 71.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.