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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+2.09vs Predicted
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2George Washington University3.41+2.46vs Predicted
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3Boston University2.94+2.78vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University2.05+4.31vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College1.96+3.59vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College2.71+0.51vs Predicted
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7University of Connecticut1.13+3.67vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.56-1.10vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45-4.53vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.63-0.39vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.77-4.59vs Predicted
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12Boston University2.81-5.62vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook0.05-0.01vs Predicted
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14University of Buffalo0.75-2.43vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University-1.14-0.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.09Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.3%1st Place
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4.46George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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5.78Boston University2.940.1%1st Place
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8.31Northeastern University2.050.0%1st Place
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8.59Bowdoin College1.960.0%1st Place
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6.51Connecticut College2.710.1%1st Place
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10.67University of Connecticut1.130.0%1st Place
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6.9Brown University2.560.1%1st Place
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4.47U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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9.61Webb Institute1.630.0%1st Place
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6.41Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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6.38Boston University2.810.1%1st Place
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12.99SUNY Stony Brook0.050.0%1st Place
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11.57University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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14.25Syracuse University-1.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greiner Hobbs | 28.8% | 20.1% | 16.6% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 14.1% | 15.7% | 13.6% | 13.0% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Saldi | 8.6% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Victoria McGruer | 2.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Philip Koch | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 14.1% | 13.1% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| Walter Florio | 5.5% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Lee | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 12.4% | 18.8% | 18.7% | 13.4% | 2.6% |
| Timothy Harding | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Dana Rohde | 12.6% | 14.5% | 14.2% | 14.8% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Kremers | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 15.9% | 12.0% | 6.6% | 0.8% |
| Duncan Howes | 7.1% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Charles Welsh | 6.3% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Cody Murphy | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 16.9% | 37.6% | 21.2% |
| Rory Mess | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 13.6% | 26.6% | 19.7% | 6.2% |
| Claire Michaud | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 7.2% | 16.5% | 68.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.