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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+2.08vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.56+4.73vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45+1.40vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.77+2.27vs Predicted
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5George Washington University3.41-0.36vs Predicted
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6University of Buffalo0.75+5.59vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University2.05+1.27vs Predicted
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8University of Connecticut1.13+2.77vs Predicted
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9Boston University2.81-2.86vs Predicted
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10Boston University2.94-4.10vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College2.71-4.44vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.63-2.31vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College1.96-4.20vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook0.05-1.12vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University-1.14-0.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.3%1st Place
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6.73Brown University2.560.1%1st Place
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4.4U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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6.27Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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4.64George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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11.59University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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8.27Northeastern University2.050.0%1st Place
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10.77University of Connecticut1.130.0%1st Place
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6.14Boston University2.810.1%1st Place
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5.9Boston University2.940.1%1st Place
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6.56Connecticut College2.710.1%1st Place
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9.69Webb Institute1.630.0%1st Place
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8.8Bowdoin College1.960.0%1st Place
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12.88SUNY Stony Brook0.050.0%1st Place
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14.27Syracuse University-1.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greiner Hobbs | 28.9% | 22.2% | 14.9% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Timothy Harding | 5.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Dana Rohde | 14.8% | 13.3% | 16.0% | 13.3% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 14.2% | 13.4% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 13.9% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rory Mess | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 14.0% | 25.8% | 21.4% | 5.5% |
| Victoria McGruer | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.2% |
| Jennifer Lee | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 17.2% | 18.8% | 13.7% | 3.7% |
| Charles Welsh | 6.4% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Michael Saldi | 7.7% | 6.7% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Walter Florio | 5.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Isaac Kremers | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 12.2% | 13.3% | 17.3% | 13.8% | 4.7% | 0.3% |
| Philip Koch | 2.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 15.5% | 12.9% | 8.4% | 2.4% | 0.1% |
| Cody Murphy | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 16.6% | 38.0% | 19.3% |
| Claire Michaud | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 15.6% | 70.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.