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📊 Prediction Accuracy
60.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.56+5.81vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.08+1.03vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.45+1.45vs Predicted
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4Boston University2.94+1.81vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.77+1.40vs Predicted
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6George Washington University3.41-1.39vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.63+2.43vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College1.96+0.57vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College2.71-2.59vs Predicted
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10Boston University2.81-3.69vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University2.05-2.64vs Predicted
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12University of Buffalo0.75-0.24vs Predicted
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13University of Connecticut1.13-2.09vs Predicted
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14SUNY Stony Brook0.05-1.13vs Predicted
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15Syracuse University-1.14-0.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.81Brown University2.560.1%1st Place
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3.03Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.080.3%1st Place
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4.45U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.450.1%1st Place
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5.81Boston University2.940.1%1st Place
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6.4Cornell University2.770.1%1st Place
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4.61George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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9.43Webb Institute1.630.0%1st Place
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8.57Bowdoin College1.960.0%1st Place
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6.41Connecticut College2.710.1%1st Place
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6.31Boston University2.810.1%1st Place
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8.36Northeastern University2.050.0%1st Place
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11.76University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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10.91University of Connecticut1.130.0%1st Place
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12.87SUNY Stony Brook0.050.0%1st Place
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14.26Syracuse University-1.140.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timothy Harding | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Greiner Hobbs | 28.8% | 22.3% | 15.7% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dana Rohde | 14.0% | 14.0% | 14.7% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Saldi | 8.4% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Howes | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Kai Friesecke | 11.3% | 14.1% | 13.2% | 14.8% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Kremers | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 11.6% | 16.0% | 14.7% | 11.8% | 4.5% | 1.1% |
| Philip Koch | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 13.8% | 12.6% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 0.3% |
| Walter Florio | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Charles Welsh | 6.2% | 6.4% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Victoria McGruer | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 10.2% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 0.4% |
| Rory Mess | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 15.4% | 24.9% | 23.3% | 5.1% |
| Jennifer Lee | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 18.3% | 22.5% | 13.7% | 2.7% |
| Cody Murphy | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 5.8% | 9.4% | 18.0% | 35.4% | 19.6% |
| Claire Michaud | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 15.1% | 70.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.