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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.4%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy3.09+5.48vs Predicted
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2California State University Channel Islands2.77+5.59vs Predicted
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3Santa Clara University1.42+10.44vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.63+0.68vs Predicted
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5University of Hawaii3.68-0.39vs Predicted
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6University of Victoria1.65+6.24vs Predicted
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7Western Washington University1.87+4.07vs Predicted
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8California State University Monterey Bay0.56+8.78vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California2.93-1.98vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara2.95-3.26vs Predicted
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11Stanford University3.44-5.97vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara2.29-2.60vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles0.44+4.19vs Predicted
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15California State University Monterey Bay0.56+1.78vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego1.81-4.17vs Predicted
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17Arizona State University1.14-2.27vs Predicted
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18University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-2.60vs Predicted
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19University of California at Irvine1.35-5.30vs Predicted
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20University of California at Davis0.42-2.81vs Predicted
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21Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.95-6.02vs Predicted
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22University of California at Berkeley1.62-9.53vs Predicted
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23University of Oregon0.76-7.12vs Predicted
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24University of California at Berkeley1.06-9.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.48California Poly Maritime Academy3.090.1%1st Place
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7.59California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
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13.44Santa Clara University1.420.0%1st Place
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4.68Stanford University3.630.2%1st Place
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4.61University of Hawaii3.680.2%1st Place
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12.24University of Victoria1.650.0%1st Place
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11.07Western Washington University1.870.0%1st Place
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16.78California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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7.02University of Southern California2.930.1%1st Place
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6.74University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.1%1st Place
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5.03Stanford University3.440.1%1st Place
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9.4University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.0%1st Place
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17.19University of California at Los Angeles0.440.0%1st Place
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16.78California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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11.83University of California at San Diego1.810.0%1st Place
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14.73Arizona State University1.140.0%1st Place
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15.4University of California at Santa Cruz0.860.0%1st Place
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13.7University of California at Irvine1.350.0%1st Place
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17.19University of California at Davis0.420.0%1st Place
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14.98Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.950.0%1st Place
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12.47University of California at Berkeley1.620.0%1st Place
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15.88University of Oregon0.760.0%1st Place
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14.55University of California at Berkeley1.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Vilicich | 8.5% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gregory Dair | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Francesca Cappellini | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| Lily Katz | 15.8% | 14.9% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Pokras | 15.3% | 16.0% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Reid Cannon | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Paul Foley | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 13.9% | 17.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Hecht | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 10.9% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Long | 7.2% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Axel Sly | 14.4% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Simone Staff | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Monti | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 13.2% | 18.7% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 13.9% | 17.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Delfino | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Smith | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| Alex Verdoia | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Weis | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Murray | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 14.6% | 19.1% | 0.0% |
| Graham Gooding | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| Kyra Oakes | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Fritsen | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 12.1% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Bordes | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.