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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
26
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz2.28+1.44vs Predicted
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2San Diego State University1.47+2.57vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27+6.82vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.63+2.08vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz0.24+4.71vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine-0.84+8.44vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz-0.17+3.75vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.22+0.66vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley-0.81+4.76vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-0.40+3.15vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego0.03-2.13vs Predicted
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12Santa Clara University-0.94+2.37vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.86+0.42vs Predicted
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14San Diego State University-1.01+1.07vs Predicted
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15California State University Monterey Bay-1.83+3.92vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-1.25+0.83vs Predicted
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17San Diego State University-0.86-2.42vs Predicted
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18University of California at Davis-1.41-1.25vs Predicted
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19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.88-4.84vs Predicted
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20University of California at Irvine-0.88-5.47vs Predicted
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21Arizona State University-1.15-5.75vs Predicted
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22University of California at San Diego-1.00-7.20vs Predicted
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23University of California at Los Angeles-1.85-4.11vs Predicted
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24University of California at Los Angeles-2.25-3.24vs Predicted
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25University of California at Davis-2.15-4.23vs Predicted
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26California State University Channel Islands-1.98-6.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.44University of California at Santa Cruz2.2838.5%1st Place
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4.57San Diego State University1.4715.1%1st Place
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9.82Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.273.0%1st Place
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6.08University of California at Santa Cruz0.637.8%1st Place
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9.71University of California at Santa Cruz0.243.5%1st Place
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14.44University of California at Irvine-0.841.7%1st Place
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10.75University of California at Santa Cruz-0.172.9%1st Place
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8.66Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.223.8%1st Place
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13.76University of California at Berkeley-0.811.4%1st Place
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13.15University of California at Berkeley-0.401.6%1st Place
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8.87University of California at San Diego0.034.0%1st Place
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14.37Santa Clara University-0.941.6%1st Place
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13.42Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.861.6%1st Place
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15.07San Diego State University-1.011.1%1st Place
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18.92California State University Monterey Bay-1.830.7%1st Place
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16.83University of California at San Diego-1.250.8%1st Place
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14.58San Diego State University-0.861.8%1st Place
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16.75University of California at Davis-1.410.9%1st Place
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14.16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.881.6%1st Place
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14.53University of California at Irvine-0.881.8%1st Place
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15.25Arizona State University-1.151.4%1st Place
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14.8University of California at San Diego-1.001.5%1st Place
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18.89University of California at Los Angeles-1.850.8%1st Place
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20.76University of California at Los Angeles-2.250.5%1st Place
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20.77University of California at Davis-2.150.2%1st Place
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19.64California State University Channel Islands-1.980.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Ho | 38.5% | 24.2% | 15.4% | 10.3% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 15.1% | 16.1% | 13.4% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Groom | 3.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Isaac Sharp | 7.8% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hunter Holguin | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brayden Money | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Dante Massaro | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Parker Ziegler | 3.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Mayfield | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Aivan Durfee | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Skyler Chaffey | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Mitchel | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Noa Brassfield | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| julian stauffer | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| Annika Altman | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 10.1% |
| Adem Evecek | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 3.6% |
| Marley Daniel | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Juliette Cramer | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.0% |
| Bennett Alger | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Nejan Gunawardena | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.3% |
| Elias Ricken | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| JP Finnegan | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| Luke Graham | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 11.4% |
| Jackson Kurtz | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 14.2% | 23.3% |
| Nicholas Conti | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 15.0% | 21.5% |
| Kurt Richards | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 16.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.