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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.46+3.84vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara3.09+0.01vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy1.44+1.90vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.18+1.68vs Predicted
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5University of Victoria0.74+1.88vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara1.07-0.03vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.18+1.56vs Predicted
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9University of Victoria0.93-2.82vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara-0.07-0.79vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay-0.48-0.40vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-0.58-1.23vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-1.45+0.09vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-0.54-3.31vs Predicted
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15California State University Monterey Bay-0.48-4.40vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-0.62-5.16vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-1.68-3.29vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego-1.01-6.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.84University of California at Santa Barbara1.460.1%1st Place
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2.01University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.5%1st Place
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4.9California Poly Maritime Academy1.440.1%1st Place
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5.68University of California at Santa Barbara1.180.1%1st Place
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6.88University of Victoria0.740.0%1st Place
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5.97University of California at Santa Barbara1.070.1%1st Place
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8.56Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.180.0%1st Place
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6.18University of Victoria0.930.1%1st Place
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9.21University of California at Santa Barbara-0.070.0%1st Place
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10.6California State University Monterey Bay-0.480.0%1st Place
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10.77University of California at Los Angeles-0.580.0%1st Place
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13.09University of California at Los Angeles-1.450.0%1st Place
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10.69University of California at Irvine-0.540.0%1st Place
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10.6California State University Monterey Bay-0.480.0%1st Place
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10.84University of California at San Diego-0.620.0%1st Place
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13.71University of California at San Diego-1.680.0%1st Place
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12.06University of California at San Diego-1.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remy Margerum | 9.7% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 14.9% | 13.9% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Neil Stapleton | 48.7% | 23.9% | 14.6% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Jensen | 8.9% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 13.4% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Burrow | 6.5% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kia Meiklejohn | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Leddy | 5.8% | 7.5% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 12.8% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Geoffrey Brelsford | 2.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ted Alley | 5.5% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anthony Helm | 1.8% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Hawkes | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 13.4% | 12.3% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Max Nutkiewicz | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 13.8% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| Nellie Ponarul | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 12.1% | 18.8% | 28.1% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Diaz | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Hawkes | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 13.4% | 12.3% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Grant Lin | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 13.3% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| Diego Gomes | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 12.0% | 21.1% | 36.8% | 0.0% |
| Shannon Frick | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 10.6% | 13.6% | 13.4% | 17.0% | 12.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.