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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.18+7.33vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara3.09-0.05vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.18+2.53vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.46+0.84vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.07+0.88vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara-0.07+2.27vs Predicted
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8University of Victoria0.74-1.21vs Predicted
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9University of California at Irvine-0.54+1.48vs Predicted
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10University of Victoria0.50-2.58vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-1.01+1.00vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay-0.48-1.65vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay-0.48-2.65vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-0.58-3.22vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-1.68-1.41vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-0.62-6.21vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-1.45-4.86vs Predicted
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19California Poly Maritime Academy1.44-14.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.33Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.180.0%1st Place
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1.95University of California at Santa Barbara3.090.5%1st Place
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5.53University of California at Santa Barbara1.180.1%1st Place
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4.84University of California at Santa Barbara1.460.1%1st Place
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5.88University of California at Santa Barbara1.070.1%1st Place
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9.27University of California at Santa Barbara-0.070.0%1st Place
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6.79University of Victoria0.740.0%1st Place
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10.48University of California at Irvine-0.540.0%1st Place
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7.42University of Victoria0.500.0%1st Place
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12.0University of California at San Diego-1.010.0%1st Place
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10.35California State University Monterey Bay-0.480.0%1st Place
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10.35California State University Monterey Bay-0.480.0%1st Place
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10.78University of California at Los Angeles-0.580.0%1st Place
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13.59University of California at San Diego-1.680.0%1st Place
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10.79University of California at San Diego-0.620.0%1st Place
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13.14University of California at Los Angeles-1.450.0%1st Place
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4.85California Poly Maritime Academy1.440.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoffrey Brelsford | 2.1% | 3.2% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Neil Stapleton | 49.2% | 25.0% | 13.9% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Burrow | 7.0% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Remy Margerum | 9.2% | 13.0% | 14.4% | 13.2% | 13.3% | 11.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Leddy | 6.4% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Anthony Helm | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Kia Meiklejohn | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Diaz | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 14.4% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Leh Smallshaw | 3.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Shannon Frick | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 15.7% | 16.2% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Hawkes | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Hawkes | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Max Nutkiewicz | 0.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| Diego Gomes | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 12.4% | 17.5% | 36.9% | 0.0% |
| Grant Lin | 0.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| Nellie Ponarul | 0.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 13.1% | 19.9% | 27.0% | 0.0% |
| Drake Jensen | 8.6% | 12.3% | 15.8% | 13.8% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.