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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.92+2.44vs Predicted
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2Arizona State University0.66+4.39vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26+6.96vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.35+2.98vs Predicted
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5University of California at Irvine-0.36+6.42vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.98+0.18vs Predicted
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7California State University Channel Islands0.82-1.21vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis-0.19+0.16vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego0.95-3.37vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University0.53-2.73vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz0.82-4.44vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara-0.49-2.06vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-0.22-4.05vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-0.96-2.83vs Predicted
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15Santa Clara University-1.38-2.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.44California Poly Maritime Academy1.9224.6%1st Place
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6.39Arizona State University0.668.2%1st Place
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9.96Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.262.6%1st Place
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6.98Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.356.3%1st Place
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11.42University of California at Irvine-0.361.1%1st Place
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6.18University of California at Berkeley0.988.5%1st Place
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5.79California State University Channel Islands0.829.8%1st Place
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8.16University of California at Davis-0.194.5%1st Place
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5.63University of California at San Diego0.9511.2%1st Place
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7.27San Diego State University0.537.0%1st Place
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6.56University of California at Santa Cruz0.827.4%1st Place
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9.94University of California at Santa Barbara-0.492.2%1st Place
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8.95University of California at Berkeley-0.224.0%1st Place
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11.17University of California at Los Angeles-0.961.6%1st Place
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12.15Santa Clara University-1.381.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Mueller | 24.6% | 19.1% | 16.7% | 12.0% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Grimsley | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Florence Duff | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 8.8% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 13.4% | 17.2% | 20.8% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Sterling Maggard | 9.8% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 1.8% |
| Brendan O'Connor | 11.2% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| George Soliman | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Jonah Eckerman | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 13.6% | 8.3% |
| Alyssa Cunningham Barkus | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 4.2% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 17.1% | 18.4% |
| Chase VanDerveer | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 12.2% | 16.9% | 34.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.