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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California State University Channel Islands2.77+6.62vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii3.68+2.51vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.44+2.36vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.63+0.69vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy3.09+1.40vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California2.93+1.01vs Predicted
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7Santa Clara University1.42+5.94vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego1.81+3.68vs Predicted
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9Western Washington University1.87+2.24vs Predicted
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10California State University Monterey Bay0.56+6.65vs Predicted
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11University of California at Irvine1.35+2.39vs Predicted
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12University of Victoria1.65+0.18vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara2.29-3.47vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University1.14+0.71vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis0.42+2.52vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara2.95-9.20vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-1.27vs Predicted
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19University of California at Los Angeles0.44-1.89vs Predicted
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20University of California at Berkeley1.06-5.46vs Predicted
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21University of Oregon0.76-4.94vs Predicted
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22California State University Monterey Bay0.56-5.35vs Predicted
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23University of California at Berkeley1.62-10.72vs Predicted
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24Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.95-8.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.62California State University Channel Islands2.770.1%1st Place
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4.51University of Hawaii3.680.2%1st Place
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5.36Stanford University3.440.1%1st Place
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4.69Stanford University3.630.1%1st Place
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6.4California Poly Maritime Academy3.090.1%1st Place
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7.01University of Southern California2.930.1%1st Place
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12.94Santa Clara University1.420.0%1st Place
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11.68University of California at San Diego1.810.0%1st Place
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11.24Western Washington University1.870.0%1st Place
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16.65California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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13.39University of California at Irvine1.350.0%1st Place
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12.18University of Victoria1.650.0%1st Place
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9.53University of California at Santa Barbara2.290.0%1st Place
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14.71Arizona State University1.140.0%1st Place
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17.52University of California at Davis0.420.0%1st Place
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6.8University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.1%1st Place
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15.73University of California at Santa Cruz0.860.0%1st Place
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17.11University of California at Los Angeles0.440.0%1st Place
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14.54University of California at Berkeley1.060.0%1st Place
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16.06University of Oregon0.760.0%1st Place
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16.65California State University Monterey Bay0.560.0%1st Place
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12.28University of California at Berkeley1.620.0%1st Place
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15.05Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Dair | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Pokras | 17.8% | 14.8% | 13.7% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Axel Sly | 10.9% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lily Katz | 14.7% | 14.5% | 14.2% | 13.0% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Vilicich | 8.8% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Hecht | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Francesca Cappellini | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Delfino | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Paul Foley | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 15.2% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Weis | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| Reid Cannon | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Simone Staff | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Smith | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Murray | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 15.6% | 19.9% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Long | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Verdoia | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Monti | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 15.2% | 18.7% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Bordes | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Fritsen | 1.4% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 0.0% |
| Peter Schmidt | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 15.2% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| Kyra Oakes | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Graham Gooding | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.