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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy2.52+5.22vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California2.47+4.31vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.32+4.06vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara2.14+3.56vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.50+1.28vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara2.05+1.95vs Predicted
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7Stanford University3.74-4.13vs Predicted
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8University of Oregon0.46+6.64vs Predicted
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9University of Victoria1.87-0.35vs Predicted
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10California State University Monterey Bay0.14+5.85vs Predicted
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11California State University Channel Islands0.37+3.75vs Predicted
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12Santa Clara University0.59+2.11vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.39-2.37vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis0.03+2.55vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles0.58-0.56vs Predicted
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16Western Washington University0.52-1.75vs Predicted
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17University of California at Berkeley0.92-4.18vs Predicted
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18University of California at Irvine1.06-6.01vs Predicted
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19University of California at Berkeley1.71-9.94vs Predicted
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20California State University Monterey Bay0.14-4.15vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego0.31-5.73vs Predicted
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22Arizona State University-1.11-2.48vs Predicted
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24University of California at Santa Cruz0.02-7.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.22California Poly Maritime Academy2.520.1%1st Place
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6.31University of Southern California2.470.1%1st Place
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7.06University of Hawaii2.320.1%1st Place
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7.56University of California at Santa Barbara2.140.1%1st Place
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6.28Stanford University2.500.1%1st Place
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7.95University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.1%1st Place
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2.87Stanford University3.740.3%1st Place
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14.64University of Oregon0.460.0%1st Place
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8.65University of Victoria1.870.0%1st Place
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15.85California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
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14.75California State University Channel Islands0.370.0%1st Place
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14.11Santa Clara University0.590.0%1st Place
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10.63Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.390.0%1st Place
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16.55University of California at Davis0.030.0%1st Place
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14.44University of California at Los Angeles0.580.0%1st Place
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14.25Western Washington University0.520.0%1st Place
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12.82University of California at Berkeley0.920.0%1st Place
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11.99University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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9.06University of California at Berkeley1.710.0%1st Place
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15.85California State University Monterey Bay0.140.0%1st Place
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15.27University of California at San Diego0.310.0%1st Place
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19.52Arizona State University-1.110.0%1st Place
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16.22University of California at Santa Cruz0.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Lynch | 8.9% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 8.5% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Giacomo Paoletti | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Stokes | 5.6% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Holly Tullo | 8.6% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ginger Luckey | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will La Dow | 32.0% | 22.1% | 14.9% | 12.9% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eliza Pearce | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| David Berry | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alicia Ward | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 12.7% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Tedmori | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Francesca Dana | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| David Cornella | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Robert Jones | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 14.5% | 11.2% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Wyman | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Van Slyck | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| Ian Markowitz | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 2.8% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Hays | 3.4% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alicia Ward | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 12.0% | 9.4% | 12.7% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| Brett Farrell | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| Conor McGee | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 50.7% | 0.0% |
| Kip Wanaselja | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.