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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.92+2.29vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley0.98+4.08vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26+6.97vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.82+2.62vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.35+1.95vs Predicted
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6California State University Channel Islands0.82-0.38vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego0.95-1.29vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University0.66-1.64vs Predicted
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9San Diego State University0.53-1.67vs Predicted
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10University of California at Irvine-0.36+1.52vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-0.22-1.85vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-0.19-3.82vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-0.96-1.89vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara-0.49-4.12vs Predicted
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15Santa Clara University-1.38-2.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.29California Poly Maritime Academy1.9226.5%1st Place
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6.08University of California at Berkeley0.988.5%1st Place
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9.97Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.262.9%1st Place
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6.62University of California at Santa Cruz0.827.2%1st Place
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6.95Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.357.5%1st Place
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5.62California State University Channel Islands0.8210.5%1st Place
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5.71University of California at San Diego0.959.1%1st Place
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6.36Arizona State University0.668.0%1st Place
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7.33San Diego State University0.536.1%1st Place
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11.52University of California at Irvine-0.361.6%1st Place
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9.15University of California at Berkeley-0.222.9%1st Place
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8.18University of California at Davis-0.193.9%1st Place
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11.11University of California at Los Angeles-0.961.9%1st Place
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9.88University of California at Santa Barbara-0.492.6%1st Place
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12.24Santa Clara University-1.380.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Mueller | 26.5% | 19.2% | 17.4% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 8.5% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Florence Duff | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 11.9% | 8.2% |
| George Soliman | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Sterling Maggard | 10.5% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Brendan O'Connor | 9.1% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Matt Grimsley | 8.0% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Christopher Hopkins | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 13.3% | 17.5% | 22.9% |
| Alyssa Cunningham Barkus | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 4.5% |
| Nathaniel Holden | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 1.9% |
| Conrad Kistler | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 20.2% | 16.6% |
| Jonah Eckerman | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 13.4% | 11.9% | 7.5% |
| Chase VanDerveer | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 11.3% | 16.4% | 35.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.